Economics
Macroeconomics, IMF data, global economic trends and sovereign finance
69 articles
Mortgage Rates Edge Up to 6.58%, Pushing Monthly Payments $65 Higher Than Last Year
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose 3 basis points this week to 6.58%, squeezing affordability as the monthly payment on a $400,000 loan now tops $2,549.
US jobless claims rise to 197,000 but remain near historic lows
Initial jobless claims climbed by 9,000 to 197,000 last week, a 4.8% increase from the prior week's 188,000, as the labor market stayed tight despite modest volatility.
Inflation Expectations Hit 2.26%, Up 6bps—On Target
The breakeven inflation rate equals the yield gap between a conventional Treasury and a TIPS of the same maturity. If the 10Y nominal yields 4.50% and the 10Y TIPS yields 2.00%, the 10Y breakeven is 2.50% — the level of average CPI at which an investor is indifferent between the
10Y Breakeven at 2.20% – Inflation On Target, Slight Dip
The breakeven inflation rate equals the yield gap between a conventional Treasury and a TIPS of the same maturity. If the 10Y nominal yields 4.50% and the 10Y TIPS yields 2.00%, the 10Y breakeven is 2.50% — the level of average CPI at which an investor is indifferent between the
10Y Yield Eases to 4.69% as Curve Stays Positive Amid Fed Watch
The 10-year Treasury yield dipped 2bps to 4.69% Tuesday, trimming its 14bps weekly gain while maintaining a positive curve signal with a 34bps 2Y-10Y spread.
Inflation Expectations Hold Steady at 2.21% Amid Dip
The breakeven inflation rate equals the yield gap between a conventional Treasury and a TIPS of the same maturity. If the 10Y nominal yields 4.50% and the 10Y TIPS yields 2.00%, the 10Y breakeven is 2.50% — the level of average CPI at which an investor is indifferent between the
HY spreads widen to 279 bps as risk appetite cools amid tightening credit regime
High-yield spreads rose 2 bps to 279 bps today, extending the week's widening trend (+6 bps) as the market's NORMAL tightening regime persists, signaling cautious investor sentiment toward credit risk.
10Y Breakeven at 2.26% – Inflation On Target, Slightly Cooler
The breakeven inflation rate equals the yield gap between a conventional Treasury and a TIPS of the same maturity. If the 10Y nominal yields 4.50% and the 10Y TIPS yields 2.00%, the 10Y breakeven is 2.50% — the level of average CPI at which an investor is indifferent between the
10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 4.67%, 52-Week High as Curve Steepens
The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 12 bps this week to 4.67%, its highest level in a year, while the 2s10s spread widened slightly to 34 bps, maintaining a positive curve signal.
HY Spreads Tighten to 268 bps as Risk Appetite Holds Steady
US high-yield spreads edged 1 bp tighter to 268 bps (6th percentile) in a NORMAL regime, signaling persistent demand for risk assets despite elevated yields, with IG spreads flat at 78 bps as the HY-IG gap holds below historical averages.
Inflation Steady as 10Y Breakeven Holds 2.28%
The breakeven inflation rate equals the yield gap between a conventional Treasury and a TIPS of the same maturity. If the 10Y nominal yields 4.50% and the 10Y TIPS yields 2.00%, the 10Y breakeven is 2.50% — the level of average CPI at which an investor is indifferent between the
Fed balance sheet shrinks to $6.74T as reserves hit critical $354.1B level
The Fed's balance sheet stands at $6.74T, down $2.22T (24.8%) from its 2022 peak, with reserves plunging to $354.1B — below the critical $600B threshold — signaling tightening financial system liquidity conditions.
Mortgage Rates Climb to 6.55%, Adding $56 to Monthly Payments on $400k Loan
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose 6 basis points this week to 6.55%, pushing the monthly payment on a $400,000 loan to $2,541 — $56 higher than a year ago as borrowing costs continue to squeeze buyers.
US jobless claims plunge 10.5% to 187,000, hitting 52-week low
Initial jobless claims dropped sharply to 187,000 last week, down 22,000 (-10.5%) from the previous week's 209,000, signaling continued tightness in the labor market.
HY spreads hold at 269 bps as credit markets pause amid tightening trend
High-yield spreads were unchanged at 269 bps today, remaining in a NORMAL regime with tightening momentum, suggesting stable risk appetite but limited upside for credit investors seeking yield pickup.
Inflation Expectations Hold Steady at 2.28%, Up 2bps
The breakeven inflation rate equals the yield gap between a conventional Treasury and a TIPS of the same maturity. If the 10Y nominal yields 4.50% and the 10Y TIPS yields 2.00%, the 10Y breakeven is 2.50% — the level of average CPI at which an investor is indifferent between the
HY spreads tighten to 269bps as credit risk appetite holds steady
High-yield spreads tightened 4bps to 269bps today, remaining in a NORMAL regime with tightening momentum, signaling stable risk appetite but limited upside for bond investors amid historically tight levels.
10Y Yield Dips to 4.55% as Curve Steepens Slightly
The 10-year Treasury yield eased 2 bps to 4.55% Tuesday, extending a modest weekly decline while the 2Y-10Y spread widened 3 bps, maintaining a positive curve signal.
HY spreads widen to 273 bps as risk appetite cools amid tightening regime
High-yield spreads edged 2 bps wider to 273 bps (11th percentile) in a NORMAL but TIGHTENING regime, signaling cautious investor sentiment ahead of key earnings and Fed signals later this week.
Inflation Expectations Hold Steady at 2.25%, Up 1.0 bps
The breakeven inflation rate equals the yield gap between a conventional Treasury and a TIPS of the same maturity. If the 10Y nominal yields 4.50% and the 10Y TIPS yields 2.00%, the 10Y breakeven is 2.50% — the level of average CPI at which an investor is indifferent between the
Fed balance sheet shrinks to $6.74T as reserves hit critical $348.5B level
The Fed's balance sheet stands at $6.74T, down $2.23T (24.9%) from its 2022 peak, with reserves plunging to $348.5B — below the critical $600B threshold — signaling severe liquidity stress in financial markets.
Mortgage rates climb to 6.49%, adding $41 to monthly payments on a $400k loan
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose 6 basis points this week to 6.49%, pushing the monthly payment on a $400,000 loan to $2,526 — $41 higher than a year ago as borrowing costs continue their upward trend.
US jobless claims dip to 208,000, signaling steady labor market
Initial jobless claims fell by 8,000 to 208,000 last week, a 3.7% drop from the previous week, reflecting ongoing stability in the US labor market.
10Y Breakeven Holds at 2.23% as Inflation Stays On Target
The breakeven inflation rate equals the yield gap between a conventional Treasury and a TIPS of the same maturity. If the 10Y nominal yields 4.50% and the 10Y TIPS yields 2.00%, the 10Y breakeven is 2.50% — the level of average CPI at which an investor is indifferent between the