Economics
Macroeconomics, IMF data, global economic trends and sovereign finance
96 articles
Bank credit expands $9.5B despite deposit flight; commercial loans lead at +9.8% YoY
Total bank credit rose to $19.88T (+$9.5B WoW) with a 101.6% credit/deposit ratio, signaling continued lending appetite despite $89.1B deposit outflow, as businesses drive growth with C&I loans surging near double-digits.
August Jobs Report Shows 162k Gain, Unemployment Steady at 4.1% as Wage Growth Cools
U.S. employers added 162,000 jobs in August 2026, outpacing the 3-month average of 71k but showing moderation from recent highs, as wage growth slowed to 3.3% YoY and unemployment held at 4.1%.
10-Year Yield Hits 52-Week High at 5.29% as Curve Steepens
The 10-year Treasury yield surged 18 bps this week to 5.29%, a 52-week high, while the 2Y-10Y spread widened 15 bps to +46 bps, signaling persistent inflation concerns and growth expectations.
HY spreads widen to 312 bps as risk-off sentiment persists into Friday
US high-yield spreads rose 4 bps to 312 bps today, now 39 bps wider on the week, as the NORMAL-regime market continues its WIDENING trajectory, signaling growing investor caution toward credit risk amid elevated Treasury yields.
Inflation Steady as 10Y Breakeven Holds at 2.36%
The breakeven inflation rate equals the yield gap between a conventional Treasury and a TIPS of the same maturity. If the 10Y nominal yields 4.50% and the 10Y TIPS yields 2.00%, the 10Y breakeven is 2.50% — the level of average CPI at which an investor is indifferent between the
Mortgage Rates Hit 7.03%, Highest in a Year, Squeezing Homebuyers
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 7.03% this week, up 8 basis points from last week, pushing the monthly payment on a $400,000 loan to $2,669—$178 more than a year ago.
US jobless claims hold steady at 197,000, signaling labor market resilience
Initial jobless claims edged down slightly to 197,000 for the week ending September 26, a drop of 1,000 (0.5%) from the previous week, reflecting continued stability in the labor market.
HY spreads widen to 308 bps as credit stress builds amid rising yields
High-yield spreads rose 6 bps to 308 bps today, extending a 40 bps weekly widening in NORMAL regime, signaling growing investor caution as Treasury yields pressure leveraged borrowers.
10-Year Yield Nears 52-Week High as Curve Steepens Further
The 10-year Treasury yield edged down 1 bp to 5.17% Tuesday but remains up 16 bps this week, with the 2Y-10Y spread widening to +32 bps, signaling persistent growth expectations.
Inflation Expectations Steady at 2.34%, Target Regime Holds
The breakeven inflation rate equals the yield gap between a conventional Treasury and a TIPS of the same maturity. If the 10Y nominal yields 4.50% and the 10Y TIPS yields 2.00%, the 10Y breakeven is 2.50% — the level of average CPI at which an investor is indifferent between the
HY spreads widen to 293bps as risk-off sentiment builds ahead of key data
US high-yield spreads rose 13bps to 293bps today, extending the week's widening trend (+25bps) amid normal but tightening conditions, signaling growing investor caution ahead of critical economic releases.
10-Year Yield Nears 5% as Curve Steepens; 2-Year Surge Drives Weekly Momentum
The 10-year Treasury yield rose 1 bp to 4.96%, flirting with a 52-week high, while the 2-10Y spread widened to +32 bps, signaling persistent growth expectations despite Fed tightening.
10-Year Yield Hits 52-Week High at 4.83% as Curve Holds Positive
The 10-year Treasury yield rose 4 bps this week to 4.83%, marking a 52-week high, while the 2Y-10Y spread held positive at 39 bps, signaling persistent economic expansion expectations.
Inflation Expectations Hold Steady at 2.40%, Up 3.0 bps
The breakeven inflation rate equals the yield gap between a conventional Treasury and a TIPS of the same maturity. If the 10Y nominal yields 4.50% and the 10Y TIPS yields 2.00%, the 10Y breakeven is 2.50% — the level of average CPI at which an investor is indifferent between the
Mortgage rates hit 6.71%, a 52-week high, squeezing homebuyer budgets
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose 5 basis points this week to 6.71%, pushing monthly payments on a $400,000 loan to $2,584 — $100 more than a year ago.
US jobless claims edge up slightly to 206,000, labor market remains stable
Initial jobless claims rose modestly to 206,000 in the week ending August 29, a 1.0% increase from the previous week's revised 204,000, signaling continued stability in the labor market.
Inflation Expectations Steady at 2.37%, Target in Sight
The breakeven inflation rate equals the yield gap between a conventional Treasury and a TIPS of the same maturity. If the 10Y nominal yields 4.50% and the 10Y TIPS yields 2.00%, the 10Y breakeven is 2.50% — the level of average CPI at which an investor is indifferent between the
10Y Yield Eases to 4.77% as Curve Stays Positive; 2Y Outperforms
The 10-year Treasury yield dipped 2 bps to 4.77% on Tuesday, trimming its weekly gain to 10 bps, while the 2Y-10Y spread held positive at 41 bps, signaling persistent growth expectations.
Mortgage Rates Edge Up to 6.66%, Pushing Monthly Payments Higher
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose slightly to 6.66% this week, up 0.01 percentage points, adding pressure to homebuyers as monthly payments on a $400,000 loan now cost $87 more than a year ago.
Fed balance sheet shrinks to $6.73T, reserves hit critical $356.2B as QT drains liquidity
The Fed's balance sheet stands at $6.73T, down $2.23T (24.9%) from its April 2022 peak, with reserves plunging to $356.2B — nearing levels that could disrupt short-term funding markets as liquidity grows scarce.
US jobless claims dip to 203,000 as labor market holds steady
Initial jobless claims fell by 4,000 to 203,000 last week, marking a 1.9% decline and signaling continued stability in the US labor market amid resilient demand for workers.
Mortgage rates inch up to 6.66%, pushing monthly payments $87 higher than last year
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose slightly to 6.66% this week (+0.10 bps WoW), squeezing affordability as buyers now pay $2,571 monthly on a $400k loan — $87 more than a year ago.
10Y Yield Jumps 6bps to 4.73% as Curve Stays Positive
The 10-year Treasury yield rose 6bps to 4.73% on Tuesday, extending recent volatility while maintaining a positive curve signal with the 2Y-10Y spread at +41bps.
Bank credit growth slows to $9.3B as C&I lending leads with 8.6% YoY expansion
Total bank credit rose $9.3B WoW to $19.80T, decelerating below the 13-week average, while deposits grew $35.4B — the 101.4% credit/deposit ratio signals tight liquidity as banks fund loans amid moderate Fed Funds pressure.