Economics
Macroeconomics, IMF data, global economic trends and sovereign finance
69 articles
HY spreads widen to 272 bps as risk appetite cools amid tightening regime
High-yield spreads rose 3 bps to 272 bps today, extending the week's 5 bps widening in a NORMAL but tightening regime, signaling cautious investor sentiment ahead of key economic data.
HY spreads hold at 269 bps as markets await catalysts amid tightening trend
High-yield spreads remained flat at 269 bps today, holding in a NORMAL regime with tightening momentum, suggesting cautious optimism but limited risk appetite ahead of key economic data.
10Y Breakeven Holds at 2.25% as Inflation Stays On Target
The breakeven inflation rate equals the yield gap between a conventional Treasury and a TIPS of the same maturity. If the 10Y nominal yields 4.50% and the 10Y TIPS yields 2.00%, the 10Y breakeven is 2.50% — the level of average CPI at which an investor is indifferent between the
10Y Breakeven Hits 2.24%, Inflation On Target, Up 1.0 bps
The breakeven inflation rate equals the yield gap between a conventional Treasury and a TIPS of the same maturity. If the 10Y nominal yields 4.50% and the 10Y TIPS yields 2.00%, the 10Y breakeven is 2.50% — the level of average CPI at which an investor is indifferent between the
10Y Yields Rise 12 Bps to 4.56% as Curve Steepens Further
The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 12 basis points this week to settle at 4.56%, extending its 2026 uptrend while the 2Y-10Y spread widened to +38 bps, reinforcing a positive curve signal.
Mortgage rates dip to 6.43%, easing affordability slightly for homebuyers
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell 6 basis points this week to 6.43%, offering modest relief to buyers as the $400,000 monthly payment drops to $2,510 from $2,487 a year ago.
US jobless claims dip slightly to 215,000 as labor market holds steady
Initial jobless claims edged down by 2,000 to 215,000 last week, marking a modest 0.9% decline as the labor market continues to show stability.
HY spreads tighten to 267bps as risk appetite extends into July
High-yield spreads tightened 5bps to 267bps (5th percentile) in a NORMAL regime, signaling sustained investor comfort with credit risk despite historically tight valuations and potential equity spillover effects.
Inflation Expectations Steady at 2.25%, Target Met
The breakeven inflation rate equals the yield gap between a conventional Treasury and a TIPS of the same maturity. If the 10Y nominal yields 4.50% and the 10Y TIPS yields 2.00%, the 10Y breakeven is 2.50% — the level of average CPI at which an investor is indifferent between the
10Y Yield Climbs to 4.49% as Curve Steepens Slightly
The 10-year Treasury yield rose 1 bp to 4.49% Tuesday, extending its weekly gain to 9 bps as the 2Y-10Y spread widened to 35 bps, signaling persistent but modest steepening.
HY spreads tighten to 274 bps as risk appetite holds steady
US high-yield spreads edged 1 bp tighter to 274 bps (11th percentile) in a NORMAL regime, with week-on-week compression of 9 bps signaling persistent demand for yield despite elevated Treasury volatility.
Inflation Expectations Hold Steady at 2.24%, Up 1.0 bps
The breakeven inflation rate equals the yield gap between a conventional Treasury and a TIPS of the same maturity. If the 10Y nominal yields 4.50% and the 10Y TIPS yields 2.00%, the 10Y breakeven is 2.50% — the level of average CPI at which an investor is indifferent between the
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The breakeven inflation rate equals the yield gap between a conventional Treasury and a TIPS of the same maturity. If the 10Y nominal yields 4.50% and the 10Y TIPS yields 2.00%, the 10Y breakeven is 2.50% — the level of average CPI at which an investor is indifferent between the
June Jobs Growth Slows to +57k, Unemployment Dips to 4.2% as Labor Market Cools
The U.S. added just 57,000 jobs in June 2026, well below the 3-month average of +111k, as private sector hiring (+49k) and government gains (+8k) signaled a deceleration in labor demand amid tighter monetary conditions.
Fed balance sheet shrinks to $6.74T, reserves at critical $336.5B as QT drains liquidity
The Fed's balance sheet stands at $6.74T, down $2.23T (24.9%) from its April 2022 peak, with reserves plunging to $336.5B — a critical level signaling tightening financial conditions as QT persists.
Inflation Expectations Hold Steady at 2.24%, Up 2bps
The breakeven inflation rate equals the yield gap between a conventional Treasury and a TIPS of the same maturity. If the 10Y nominal yields 4.50% and the 10Y TIPS yields 2.00%, the 10Y breakeven is 2.50% — the level of average CPI at which an investor is indifferent between the
Bank credit growth slows to $7.1B as deposits drop $34.2B; commercial loans lead at +8.1% YoY
Total bank credit edged up $7.1B to $19.63T, decelerating below the 13-week average, while deposits fell $34.2B — pushing the credit/deposit ratio to 101.6%, signaling tighter funding conditions that could constrain future lending amid moderate economic growth.
HY spreads tighten to 280 bps as markets shrug off recent widening
US high-yield spreads edged 3 bps tighter to 280 bps in a NORMAL regime, though still 15 bps wider on the week, signaling cautious optimism amid lingering macro uncertainty.
Treasury Yields Edge Lower as Curve Steepens Slightly Amid Fed Watch
The 10-year Treasury yield dipped 2 bps to 4.38%, extending its weekly decline to 8 bps, while the 2Y-10Y spread widened slightly to +28 bps, maintaining a positive curve signal.
Mortgage Rates Edge Higher — 30-Year at 6.49%, Adding $40 to Monthly Payments vs Last Year
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose 2 basis points this week to 6.49%, pushing the monthly payment on a $400,000 loan to $2,526 as persistent inflation keeps upward pressure on borrowing costs.
10Y Yield Dips to 4.41% as Curve Steepens Slightly Amid Mixed Data
The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.41%, down 2 bps for the week, while the 2Y-10Y spread widened to 31 bps, signaling persistent but modest economic optimism.
US GDP Grew 2.1% in Q1 2026, Third Estimate Confirms
US GDP Grew 2.1% in Q1 2026, Third Estimate Confirms The U.S. economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the first quarter of 2026, according to the third estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). This marks a significant improvement from the 0.5 percent growth recorded...
Personal Income Rose 0.7% in May as Consumer Spending Increased
Personal Income Rose 0.7% in May as Consumer Spending Increased In May 2026, personal income in the United States increased by 0.7 percent, reflecting a rise of $181.6 billion, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). This growth in personal income was accompanied by...
US jobless claims drop 5.3% to 215,000, signaling labor market stability
Initial jobless claims fell by 12,000 to 215,000 last week, a 5.3% drop from the previous week, as the labor market showed continued resilience amid steady economic conditions.