Treasury Yields Edge Lower as Curve Steepens Slightly Amid Fed Watch
MarketsFN Data Team
The 10-year Treasury yield dipped 2 bps to 4.38%, extending its weekly decline to 8 bps, while the 2Y-10Y spread widened slightly to +28 bps, maintaining a positive curve signal.
The 10-year yield has fallen 8 bps this week to 4.38%, now below its 3-month average (4.42%) but still above its 1-year average (4.245%). It remains well off its 52-week high (4.67%) but has climbed 19 bps year-to-date, reflecting shifting Fed expectations.
The 2Y-10Y spread widened 1 bp this week to +28 bps, holding above its 52-week low (+27 bps) but far below its peak (+74 bps). The persistently positive curve suggests markets see limited near-term recession risk, though historical inversions often precede economic slowdowns.
Traders await Friday's PCE inflation data for Fed clues, with yields sensitive to any surprises. Fed speakers this week could also shift rate-cut expectations, while month-end portfolio rebalancing may add technical pressure to yields.
Key Statistics at a Glance
| Edition | Mid-Week Update |
| Date | Tuesday, June 30, 2026 |
| 10Y Yield | 4.38% |
| 10Y Day-on-day | ▼ 2.0 bps |
| 10Y Week-on-week | ▼ 8.0 bps |
| 10Y YTD change | +19.0 bps |
| 10Y 3-month avg | 4.42% |
| 10Y 1-year avg | 4.25% |
| 10Y 52-week high | 4.67% |
| 10Y 52-week low | 3.97% |
| 2Y Yield | 4.07% |
| 2Y–10Y Spread | +0.280% (+28.0 bps) |
| Spread WoW | ▲ 1.0 bps |
| Spread 52-week high | +0.740% |
| Spread 52-week low | +0.270% |
| Curve signal | Positive |
