US Session Crude Oil Report — 11 Nov 2026

WTI crude is trading at $90.86 in the NY session, down 0.27% on the day as it struggles to hold above the psychologically critical $90 level, while Brent is firmer at $103.02 (+0.75%) with the spread widening to $12.16. The market is extending its seven-day downtrend, with WTI’s RSI at an oversold 22.5 and Brent testing its 9-day EMA at $103.07. Both benchmarks are trading in steep backwardation, with the Oct26-Jul27 WTI spread at -10.8% and Brent at -14.6%, signaling persistent near-term tightness despite the recent pullback.

Technicals show WTI is testing its 50-day EMA at $90.23, with immediate resistance at the pivot point of $89.46. A break below could see a test of $72.17 (S1). Brent is holding above its 21-day EMA at $101.63, with the $96.17 pivot acting as a floor. The Brent-WTI spread is widening as European crude draws stronger bids amid ongoing disruptions in the North Sea and Mediterranean. The term structure remains in deep backwardation, with prompt contracts commanding steep premiums, reflecting tight physical markets despite the recent price correction.

Geopolitical tensions are simmering, with the Hormuz chokepoint at ELEVATED risk after another IRGC tanker interception overnight. The Bab-el-Mandeb strait remains under WATCH as Houthi attacks force VLCCs to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding seven days to voyages. The EIA’s latest report shows commercial crude stocks at 427.3 mb (+0.9 mb WoW), with Cushing inventories at 24.3 mb and refinery runs at 92.5%. US production is steady at 13.95 mb/d, but the call on OPEC remains at a 0.6 mb/d deficit as Saudi maintains full compliance while Iraq and Russia slightly overproduce.

OPEC+ is holding its output cuts through December 2026, with no signs of an early unwind. Market participants are watching for any signals of an emergency meeting as prices retreat from recent highs. The backwardation in Brent is steeper than WTI, reflecting stronger European supply concerns, including potential disruptions to Kazakh CPC flows via the Black Sea.

For the NY session, WTI is testing the $90.50-$91.00 zone, with a break below risking a move toward $89.46 (PP). Brent is holding above $103, but momentum is weak, and a test of $101.63 (21-day EMA) is possible. The Asian session will watch $90.00 (WTI) and $102.50 (Brent) as key overnight levels. Any escalation in Hormuz or Bab-el-Mandeb could trigger a sharp reversal, but for now, the market is consolidating its recent losses.