US Session Crude Oil Report — 10 Nov 2026

WTI crude is trading at $90.86 in the NY session, down 0.27% on the day as it struggles to hold above the psychologically critical $90 level, while Brent finds firmer footing at $103.02 with a 0.75% gain that narrows the Brent-WTI spread to $12.16. The market remains in a technical tug-of-war, with WTI’s RSI at deeply oversold 22.5 while Brent’s 38.9 reading suggests more room for downside. Both benchmarks test key moving averages—WTI trades 1.6% below its 9-day EMA at $92.34 while Brent flirts with its 9-day EMA at $103.07, creating a pivot point for intraday direction.

The technical setup shows WTI trapped between its 50-day EMA support at $90.23 and resistance at the pivot point of $89.46, with a break below risking a test of S1 at $72.17. Brent’s structure appears more resilient, holding above its PP at $96.17 and eyeing R1 at $117.04, though momentum remains fragile. The backwardation in both benchmarks steepens, with WTI’s Oct26-Jul27 spread at -10.8% and Brent’s at -14.6%, signaling persistent near-term tightness despite the recent selloff.

Geopolitical tensions continue to underpin prices as Iran’s IRGC escalates tanker interceptions in the Strait of Hormuz, putting 20M bbl/d at risk, while Houthi attacks in the Bab-el-Mandeb force VLCCs to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, adding 7 days to voyages. These disruptions offset bearish pressure from this morning’s EIA data showing a 0.9 mb WoW crude build to 427.3 mb, with Cushing inventories edging up to 24.3 mb. Refinery runs hold at 92.5% as US production stabilizes at 13.95 mb/d, leaving the market focused on OPEC+ discipline.

The producer group maintains cuts through December 2026, with Saudi Arabia at 100% compliance while Iraq and Russia show slight overproduction. The call on OPEC at 27.4 mb/d versus 26.8 mb/d output creates a 0.6 mb/d deficit that tightens the physical market, particularly for medium sours. Traders watch for any signals from today’s OPEC+ technical committee meeting, though no policy changes are expected ahead of the December 1 ministerial.

For the NY session, WTI’s ability to defend $90 is critical—a failure here targets the 50-day EMA at $90.23 and could trigger algorithmic selling toward $89.46. Brent faces resistance at $103.07 (9-day EMA), with a break higher eyeing $104. The Asian session will key off tonight’s API data and any fresh Middle East developments, with WTI’s overnight range likely bounded by $89.50-$92.50 and Brent between $102-$104.50. The market’s next directional cue comes from tomorrow’s EIA report—another inventory build may test the bulls’ resolve, while geopolitical escalation could quickly erase the week’s 3.96% WTI decline.