US Session Crude Oil Report — 12 Nov 2026

WTI crude is trading at $90.86 in early US session action, holding just above the pivotal $89.46 level as the contract struggles to shake off a 4% weekly decline, while Brent tests $103.02 with a firmer bid tone that narrows the intercontinental spread to $12.16. The market grapples with technical oversold conditions—WTI’s RSI at 22.5 screams exhaustion—but fails to attract sustained buying despite backwardation steepening to -10.8% in WTI and -14.6% in Brent’s term structure. The Oct26/Jul27 spreads now price in acute near-term tightness even as spot prices retreat from September highs, with both benchmarks trading below all key moving averages (WTI’s EMA9 at $92.34 caps upside) in a bearish momentum setup.

Geopolitical tensions simmer beneath the surface, with Iranian IRGC forces conducting fresh tanker intercepts near Hormuz—a chokepoint handling 20M bbl/d—while Houthi attacks in Bab-el-Mandeb force VLCCs into costly Cape of Good Hope reroutes. These disruptions fail to ignite bullish momentum as OPEC+ discipline shows cracks: Iraq and Russia exceed quotas by 120k bbl/d collectively, though Saudi maintains 100% compliance. The cartel’s stated cuts through December 2026 leave the market in a 0.6 mb/d deficit, but traders appear skeptical of adherence as Brent’s failure to hold the $103.07 EMA9 triggers algorithmic selling.

The EIA’s latest print reveals a largely balanced US crude picture, with commercial inventories edging up 0.9 mb to 427.3 mb as refinery runs hold at 92.5% utilization—enough to keep Cushing stocks stable at 24.3 mb. More concerning is the SPR’s depletion to 39.7% capacity (283.8 mb), removing a buffer just as Atlantic Basin physical markets tighten. US production flatlines at 13.95 mb/d, unable to fill the OPEC+ gap, while backwardation’s steepness signals urgent near-term demand that spot prices struggle to reflect.

Asian session levels loom large as NYMEX action pivots around WTI’s $89.46 pivot point—a breach here opens $72.17 support—while Brent’s $96.17 PP anchors the European benchmark. The overnight session sees WTI trapped between the 50-day EMA ($90.23, now support) and the descending 9-day EMA ($92.34), with RSI divergence hinting at potential mean-reversion if $89.46 holds. Brent’s marginally healthier RSI at 38.9 allows for a test of $117.04 resistance should risk sentiment improve, but the broader trend remains bearish below the death-cross of EMAs.

Today’s session hinges on whether WTI can defend the 50-day EMA while Brent battles its 9-day EMA, with macro drivers (USD strength, equity flows) outweighing fundamentally tight physical balances. The spread’s contraction below $12.50 suggests arb flows may re-emerge, but for now, the market trades technicals over geopolitics—a rare disconnect given Hormuz risks. Watch for algorithmic reactions at WTI’s $90.00 gamma level and Brent’s $102.80 futures option barrier, where dealer hedging flows could exacerbate moves. The path of least resistance remains lower until either RSI rebounds or fresh OPEC+ jawboning emerges, though any Hormuz escalation would force a violent repricing.