European Session Crude Oil Report — 09 Nov 2026

Crude oil markets edge lower in European trade as WTI tests the $90 handle while Brent holds above $103, with both benchmarks extending their weekly losses amid persistent demand concerns and a stronger dollar. The Asian session saw WTI trapped in a tight $90.12-$91.24 range, failing to sustain early gains despite ongoing Middle East tensions. The Brent-WTI spread widens to $12.16, pressuring European refiners already grappling with thin margins as backwardation steepens across both benchmarks.

Technicals paint a bearish picture for WTI as it trades 1.6% below its 9-day EMA and 2.2% under the 21-day EMA, with RSI plunging to oversold territory at 22.5. The $89.46 pivot point acts as immediate support, though the broader technical setup suggests vulnerability to further downside. Brent shows marginally more resilience, clinging to its 9-day EMA at $103.07 with RSI at 38.9, but faces stiff resistance at the $117.04 R1 level. The steeper backwardation in Brent’s curve (-14.6% for Oct26-Jul27 vs WTI’s -10.8%) reflects ongoing Atlantic Basin tightness despite the recent price slide.

Geopolitical risk premiums continue simmering beneath the surface as Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps naval activity disrupts Hormuz transits, while Houthi attacks force VLCCs into costly Cape of Good Hope diversions. These disruptions partially offset bearish inventory signals, with U.S. commercial stocks building another 0.9 million barrels last week despite refinery runs holding at 92.5% of capacity. The physical market shows strain as Cushing inventories dip to 24.3 million barrels, exacerbating WTI’s prompt backwardation. OPEC+ discipline remains a key support pillar, with the group maintaining 0.6 million b/d of theoretical cuts through December, though Russian Urals exports show signs of creeping above quota levels.

The term structure tells diverging stories - Brent’s steep backwardation signals near-term supply anxiety, particularly for European buyers facing disrupted Middle East flows, while WTI’s flatter curve reflects better-supplied U.S. markets. Traders eye the NYMEX open for directional cues, with algorithmic systems likely testing the $89.46 WTI pivot and Brent’s $101.63 21-day EMA serving as a litmus test for bullish conviction. The spread dynamics keep European complex margins under pressure, with the $12+ Brent-WTI gap eroding competitiveness against U.S. and Asian rivals.

For the afternoon session, all eyes remain on the $90 psychological level for WTI - a sustained break opens the path toward $82.16 support, while failure to reclaim the 9-day EMA at $92.34 could trigger fresh systematic selling. Brent’s outlook hinges on whether it can defend the $101.63 21-day EMA, with a close below potentially accelerating the week’s downtrend. The geopolitical floor remains firm, but with RSI indicators flashing oversold signals for WTI, the market walks a tightrope between physical market softness and escalating supply risks.