US Session Crude Oil Report — 09 Nov 2026

WTI crude is trading at $90.86 in early US session action, struggling to hold above the psychologically critical $90 level as Brent-WTI spreads widen to $12.16. The front-month contract faces technical resistance at the 9-day EMA ($92.34) while the RSI at 22.5 signals extreme oversold conditions after last week’s 3.96% slide. Brent shows relative strength at $103.02, testing its 9-day EMA ($103.07) as the backwardation curve steepens to -14.6% for Jul27 contracts.

The technical setup remains bearish with WTI trading below all key moving averages, though the 50-day EMA at $90.23 provides tentative support. Pivot point analysis shows the $89.46 PP acting as intraday magnet, with a break below risking acceleration toward $72.17 S1. Brent’s structure appears more resilient with the 50-day EMA ($97.21) sloping upward, but the $96.17 PP looms as critical support. The widening Brent-WTI spread reflects tightening Atlantic Basin fundamentals as US inventories build (+0.9 mb WoW) while Cushing stocks hover at operational minimums (24.3 mb).

Geopolitical tensions keep risk premia elevated with Iranian IRGC forces conducting fresh tanker intercepts in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening 20% of global seaborne flows. Houthi attacks in the Bab-el-Mandeb force VLCC reroutings via the Cape of Good Hope, adding 7 days to voyage times. These disruptions partially offset bearish sentiment from OPEC+ overproduction, where Iraq and Russia continue pumping above quota despite Saudi Arabia maintaining 100% compliance. The cartel’s 0.6 mb/d deficit against call on OPEC suggests structural tightness persists.

The term structure tells diverging stories – WTI’s backwardation (-10.8% Oct26/Jul27) reflects near-term US inventory concerns, while Brent’s steeper curve (-14.6%) signals Atlantic Basin supply anxiety. Refinery utilization at 92.5% indicates healthy demand, though US production at 13.95 mb/d weighs on WTI sentiment. The critical overnight level to watch is WTI’s $89.46 PP – a sustained break below opens the path to $72.17, while holding above could trigger short-covering toward $108.15 R1. For Brent, the $101.63 21-day EMA acts as pivot, with upside capped at $117.04 R1.

The session’s price action hinges on whether WTI can defend $90 as algorithmic traders test downside liquidity. Any escalation in Hormuz tensions or surprise OPEC+ compliance rhetoric could spark a squeeze given extreme RSI readings. Conversely, another failed test of the 9-day EMA may reinforce the bearish momentum. Asian session traders will eye whether WTI maintains footing above the 50-day EMA and if Brent’s backwardation continues steepening – both key signals for whether this correction extends or finds a floor.