US Session Crude Oil Report — 23 Oct 2026

WTI crude is trading at $90.86 in early New York trading, holding just above the pivotal $89.46 support as Brent tests $103.02 with a firmer bid tone. The Brent-WTI spread widens to $12.16 as European crude benchmarks find support from tightening Atlantic Basin physical markets. Both contracts remain in steep backwardation, with WTI’s front-to-July27 spread at -10.8% and Brent at -14.6%, maintaining structural tightness signals despite this week’s price pullback.

Technical pressure builds on WTI as it trades 1.6% below the 9-day EMA at $92.34, with RSI(14) deeply oversold at 22.5. The contract now tests the lower Bollinger Band while Brent’s RSI at 38.9 shows less extreme positioning. Key resistance holds at $92.90 (WTI 21-day EMA) and $103.07 (Brent 9-day EMA), with traders watching whether Brent can reclaim its 50-day EMA at $97.21. Pivot analysis suggests WTI must defend $89.46 (PP) to avoid a test of $72.17 (S1), while Brent’s $96.17 PP serves as critical support.

Geopolitical tensions simmer with Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps conducting fresh tanker intercepts in the Strait of Hormuz, keeping 20 million barrels per day of flows at elevated risk. The Bab-el-Mandeb chokepoint remains under watch as Houthi forces continue targeting shipping, forcing VLCCs to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope at a seven-day voyage penalty. These disruptions offset bearish inventory data showing US commercial crude stocks building 0.9 million barrels last week, though refinery utilization holds firm at 92.5%.

OPEC+ discipline remains the market’s structural floor, with the group maintaining cuts through December 2026. The 0.6 million barrel per day deficit between call on OPEC (27.4 mb/d) and actual output (26.8 mb/d) keeps the market in backwardation despite recession concerns. Saudi compliance runs at 100%, though Iraq and Russia continue slight overproduction. Traders await any emergency OPEC+ communication as prices test key technical levels.

For the Asian session, WTI’s overnight range of $89.50-$91.75 will serve as initial boundaries, with Brent likely to oscillate between $102.20 and $104.60. The Brent-WTI spread may widen further if European crude tightness persists. All eyes remain on Hormuz shipping lanes after today’s IRGC activity, with any escalation likely to trigger algorithmic buying through $92.34 (WTI 9-day EMA). Downside risks emerge if WTI loses $89.46 support, which could trigger stop-loss flows toward $82.16 (S1). The backwardation structure suggests physical tightness endures, keeping the bias toward buying dips despite technical oversold conditions.