US Session Crude Oil Report — 13 Nov 2026

WTI crude is trading at $90.86 in the NYMEX session, down 0.27% on the day as bearish momentum extends into a second week, with the contract now down nearly 4% over seven sessions. Brent holds firmer at $103.02, up 0.75%, but the spread narrows to $12.16 as European benchmarks find support from tightening Atlantic Basin supply. Both contracts remain entrenched in oversold territory, with WTI’s RSI at 22.5 and Brent at 38.9, though the latter shows tentative signs of stabilizing above its 9-day EMA at $103.07.

The technical setup leans bearish as WTI struggles below all key moving averages, facing rejection at the $92.34 (EMA9) level during early New York trade. Brent’s structure is more resilient, trading above its 21-day EMA at $101.63, but faces immediate resistance at $103.50—a level that has capped rallies three times this week. Pivot points suggest WTI’s pivot at $89.46 is critical; a break below opens $72.17 (S1), while Brent’s PP at $96.17 remains distant. The term structure reinforces bearish near-term sentiment, with both benchmarks in steep backwardation—WTI’s Oct26/Jul27 spread at -10.8%, Brent’s at -14.6%—as prompt supply tightness clashes with weakening long-dated demand expectations.

Geopolitical tensions simmer but fail to ignite sustained buying. The Hormuz chokepoint remains elevated with IRGC naval activity disrupting tanker flows, while Bab-el-Mandeb sees VLCCs diverting via the Cape of Good Hope, adding seven days to voyages. OPEC+ discipline provides a floor, with the group maintaining cuts through December 2026, but Iraq and Russia’s slight overproduction offsets Saudi Arabia’s full compliance. The call on OPEC stands at 27.4 mb/d versus 26.8 mb/d output, leaving a 0.6 mb/d deficit that keeps inventories tight.

Today’s EIA data—released mid-session—shows commercial crude stocks building marginally by 0.9 mb to 427.3 mb, while Cushing inventories hover at 24.3 mb. Refinery runs hold at 92.5%, but US production dips to 13.95 mb/d, underscoring operational constraints. The SPR release of 2 mb/d continues to cap upside, with stocks at 283.8 mb (39.7% capacity).

For the remainder of the NY session, WTI faces pressure below $91.50, with algorithmic selling likely to accelerate if $89.46 (PP) breaks. Brent’s relative strength may fade if it fails to hold $102.80—the overnight Asia session low. Traders eye the $12 Brent-WTI spread for arbitrage opportunities, particularly as European diesel cracks show resilience. The Asian session will key off tonight’s API data and any OPEC+ commentary; a retest of WTI’s $88.50 overnight low is possible if risk-off sentiment persists. Critical levels to watch: WTI resistance at $92.34 (EMA9), support at $89.46 (PP); Brent resistance at $103.50, support at $101.63 (EMA21).