US Session Crude Oil Report — 02 Nov 2026

WTI crude is trading at $90.86 in the NYMEX session, down 0.27% on the day as it struggles to hold above the psychologically critical $90 level while Brent pushes higher to $103.02, widening the intermarket spread to $12.16. The front-month contract faces technical pressure with RSI(14) deeply oversold at 22.5 and trading below all key EMAs, while Brent shows marginally better momentum with its RSI at 38.9. Price action tests the pivot point at $89.46 with bears eyeing S1 at $72.17 should the breakdown accelerate, though the 50EMA at $90.23 provides near-term support. The backwardated curve steepens as Oct26-Jul27 WTI trades at a $9.71 discount and Brent at $14.91, signaling persistent near-term tightness despite the broader selloff.

Geopolitical tensions maintain a bid under prices as Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps naval units escalate tanker interceptions in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening 20% of global seaborne crude flows. The Bab-el-Mandeb choke point remains under watch with Houthi militants forcing VLCCs to divert around Africa, adding seven days to voyage times and tightening Atlantic Basin supply. These disruptions partially offset bearish sentiment from yesterday’s EIA data showing U.S. commercial inventories building 0.9 million barrels to 427.3 million, though refinery runs at 92.5% utilization and Cushing stocks at 24.3 million barrels suggest demand remains firm. The market continues pricing in OPEC+’s structural 0.6 million barrel/day deficit through December, with Saudi Arabia maintaining full compliance while Russia and Iraq produce slightly above quota.

Term structure signals flash conflicting messages – the steep backwardation indicates physical tightness, yet collapsing timespreads suggest trader reluctance to chase prices higher. WTI’s Oct26/Nov26 spread trades at just $0.38 contango, down from $1.12 last week, as prompt barrels lose upward momentum. Brent’s equivalent spread holds firmer at $0.62 backwardation but remains vulnerable to further compression. The futures curve now prices July 2027 WTI at $80.50 and Brent at $86.89, reflecting expectations for prolonged non-OPEC supply growth and demand destruction above $90.

For the NY session, traders focus on whether WTI can defend the $90 handle as algorithmic selling pressures the oversold contract. The 50EMA at $90.23 serves as intraday support, with a break potentially accelerating losses toward $89.46 pivot and the September low at $87.15. Resistance clusters at the 9-day EMA ($92.34) and psychological $95 level. Brent shows relative strength but faces stiff resistance at its 9-day EMA ($103.07) and the October high at $105.88. The Asian session will key off tonight’s API inventory data and any fresh OPEC+ commentary, with Saudi energy minister remarks due at 0200 GMT. Overnight levels to watch include WTI’s S1 at $72.17 and Brent’s R1 at $117.04, though these extremes require significant catalysts to test. The market remains hypersensitive to Hormuz developments, with any escalation likely triggering a short-covering rally given extreme bearish positioning.