10Y Yield Dips to 4.46% as Curve Holds Positive Despite Flattening
MarketsFN Data Team
The 10-year Treasury yield fell 3 bps to 4.46% on Tuesday, easing from recent highs while the 2Y-10Y spread narrowed to +27 bps, maintaining a positive but flattening curve signal.
The 10-year yield is up 1 bp this week but remains above its 3-month (4.41%) and 1-year (4.24%) averages. It sits 80 bps below its 52-week high (4.67%) and 49 bps above its low (3.97%), reflecting persistent volatility in 2026's rate environment.
The 2Y-10Y spread tightened 12 bps this week to +27 bps, matching its 52-week low. While still positive, the flattening suggests reduced growth optimism. Historically, spreads below +50 bps have preceded economic slowdowns, though not immediate recessions.
Markets await Friday's PCE inflation data for Fed policy clues. A hot print could revive yield upside, while soft figures may extend the dip. Fed speakers and month-end portfolio rebalancing could also drive volatility.
Key Statistics at a Glance
| Edition | Mid-Week Update |
| Date | Tuesday, June 23, 2026 |
| 10Y Yield | 4.46% |
| 10Y Day-on-day | ▲ 3.0 bps |
| 10Y Week-on-week | ▲ 1.0 bps |
| 10Y YTD change | +27.0 bps |
| 10Y 3-month avg | 4.41% |
| 10Y 1-year avg | 4.24% |
| 10Y 52-week high | 4.67% |
| 10Y 52-week low | 3.97% |
| 2Y Yield | 4.19% |
| 2Y–10Y Spread | +0.270% (+27.0 bps) |
| Spread WoW | ▼ 12.0 bps |
| Spread 52-week high | +0.740% |
| Spread 52-week low | +0.270% |
| Curve signal | Positive |
