USD/TRY: Up 0.14% to 48.4926 — RSI Overbought

USD/TRY is trading at 48.4926 (+0.14%), pressing against its all-time high of 48.4926 as the lira’s structural weakness persists. The pair remains firmly in an uptrend, trading above both the 20-day SMA (48.1210) and 50-day SMA (47.5764), with the ascending dynamic channels confirming bullish momentum. The nearest dynamic support sits at 48.2665 (2261.1 pips below), while resistance looms at 48.5905 (just 979.3 pips above) — a breakout here would signal another leg higher. Static levels show immediate support at S1 (48.3640, 1286 pips below) and resistance at R1 (48.4830, just 96 pips away), with today’s pivot at 48.4204 acting as intraday support.

The RSI at 84.5 screams overbought, but in TRY’s case, this is more a feature than a bug — sustained RSI readings above 80 have been common during past lira selloffs. With the 20-day ATR at 0.1788, today’s range (48.4068-48.4981) remains within typical volatility bounds. The ascending channels across both 20-day and 50-day timeframes suggest the uptrend has room to run, though a close below the 20-day dynamic support (48.2665) would signal exhaustion.

Short-term, watch the R1 level at 48.4830 — a decisive break above could trigger stops toward 48.5905. The real test comes if the CBRT intervenes verbally or via direct sales, but with FX reserves still strained, any rally may face only token resistance. Next week’s inflation data (September 15) could accelerate moves if it surprises above the 65% y/y consensus.