USD/JPY is trading at 157.04 (-0.69%) as of October 22, 2026, during the European session, marking a decline from its previous close of 158.12. The pair is currently trading within its day range of 156.82 – 158.25, and remains below both its 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages at 157.97 and 157.63, respectively, reinforcing the prevailing downtrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 40.7, indicating neutral territory and suggesting that the pair is not oversold.

The Average True Range (ATR) of 0.75 indicates moderate daily volatility. Key technical levels to watch include the pivot at 158.16, with resistance at R1 (158.49) and support at S1 (157.94). The current rate is below the pivot and nearing the S1 support level, suggesting potential for further downside if it breaks below 157.94.

The market may be underpricing the potential for continued weakness in USD/JPY given its position below both the SMA-20 and SMA-50, and nearing key support. A break below S1 at 157.94 could signal further declines, potentially towards the lower end of its 52-week range at 153.42. A forward catalyst to confirm this view would be a decisive break below 157.94, followed by a sustained move lower.