FX Morning Briefing — Thu 22 Oct 2026: USD/MXN Rallies 1.68% as European Session Opens
MarketsFN FX Desk
European markets open on Thursday 22 October 2026 with G10 FX showing mixed signals as the Asian session wraps up and traders position for Friday's US afternoon data. The top movers overnight are USD/MXN (+1.68%), NOK/SEK (+0.45%), EUR/NOK (-0.40%). The US Dollar Index (DXY) reflects accumulated Fed rate-cut expectations, with risk-sensitive currencies responding to equity futures and commodity prices in early London trade.
The European morning calendar is light — German and Spanish CPI finals confirm the disinflationary trend — before the key risk event arrives in the US session: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September) at 16:00 UTC. A beat would support USD broadly; a miss would renew pressure on USD/JPY near its 2026 floor and push EUR/USD back toward its 52-week high. Norges Bank's hawkish hold continues to anchor NOK outperformance, while exotic pairs trade in tight ranges ahead of the weekly close.
All 19 pairs below include live MT5 pivot levels (R1 R2 R3 / S1 S2 S3) computed from Thursday's full-session OHLC, 65-day candlestick charts with SMA20, SMA50 and Bollinger Bands (20,2), and forward-looking analysis for the EU and US sessions on Thu 22 Oct 2026.
Today's Economic Calendar
| Time (UTC) | Event | CCY | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:30 | ● SNB Monetary Policy Assessment | CHF | — | — | — |
| 10:50 | ● BoE Gov Bailey Speaks | GBP | — | — | — |
| 11:00 | ● One-Week Repo Rate (Oct) | TRY | 37.00% | 36.00% | — |
| 12:30 | ● Continuing Jobless Claims | USD | 1,710K | 1,720K | — |
| 12:30 | ● Initial Jobless Claims | USD | 199K | 200K | — |
| 12:30 | ● RMPI (MoM) (Sep) | CAD | 3.1% | 3.1% | — |
| 13:30 | ● New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Sep) | CAD | -0.1% | -0.1% | — |
| 14:00 | ● US Leading Index (MoM) (Sep) | USD | -0.1% | -0.1% | — |
| 20:30 | ● Fed's Balance Sheet | USD | 6,756B | — | — |
| 23:30 | ● National Core CPI (YoY) (Sep) | JPY | 1.7% | 2.1% | — |
| 23:30 | ● National CPI (MoM) (Sep) | JPY | 0.1% | — | — |
Major Pairs
EUR/USD
1.1230 ▼0.01% Session H 1.1231 / L 1.1222 52W 1.1112–1.2082
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.1270 | 1.1255 | 1.1243 | 1.1216 | 1.1201 | 1.1189 |
EUR/USD opens the European session at 1.1230 (-0.01% vs. Thursday's close), just 1.06% above its 52-week floor at 1.1112. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 1.1228. The 52-week range of 1.1112–1.2082 places EUR/USD at the 12th percentile — the annual support is the key line in the sand — hold or break determines the next directional leg.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 1.1243 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (1.1255) and R3 (1.1270). On the downside, S1 at 1.1216 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (1.1201) then S3 (1.1189). The R1–S1 corridor (1.1243–1.1216) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For EUR/USD, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.
EUR/USDRangeboundNear 52W Low
GBP/USD
1.3383 ▲0.05% Session H 1.3402 / L 1.3363 52W 1.3009–1.3868
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.3537 | 1.3473 | 1.3425 | 1.3313 | 1.3249 | 1.3201 |
GBP/USD opens the European session at 1.3383 (+0.05% vs. Thursday's close), at the 44th percentile of its 1.3009–1.3868 52-week range. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 1.3361. The 52-week range of 1.3009–1.3868 places GBP/USD at the 44th percentile — price remains in the lower half of its annual range, reflecting structural headwinds.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 1.3425 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (1.3473) and R3 (1.3537). On the downside, S1 at 1.3313 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (1.3249) then S3 (1.3201). The R1–S1 corridor (1.3425–1.3313) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For GBP/USD, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.
GBP/USDRangebound
USD/JPY
158.28 ▲0.09% Session H 158.39 / L 157.83 52W 152.04–163.98
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 159.33 | 158.97 | 158.56 | 157.78 | 157.41 | 157.00 |
USD/JPY opens the European session at 158.28 (+0.09% vs. Thursday's close), at the 52th percentile of its 152.04–163.98 52-week range. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 158.19. The 52-week range of 152.04–163.98 places USD/JPY at the 52th percentile — momentum is broadly constructive within the annual range.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 158.56 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (158.97) and R3 (159.33). On the downside, S1 at 157.78 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (157.41) then S3 (157.00). The R1–S1 corridor (158.56–157.78) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/JPY, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.
USD/JPYRangebound
USD/CHF
0.8252 ▲0.09% Session H 0.8263 / L 0.8235 52W 0.7602–0.8395
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.8316 | 0.8293 | 0.8269 | 0.8221 | 0.8198 | 0.8174 |
USD/CHF opens the European session at 0.8252 (+0.09% vs. Thursday's close), at the 82th percentile of its 0.7602–0.8395 52-week range. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 0.8245. The 52-week range of 0.7602–0.8395 places USD/CHF at the 82th percentile — momentum is broadly constructive within the annual range.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 0.8269 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (0.8293) and R3 (0.8316). On the downside, S1 at 0.8221 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (0.8198) then S3 (0.8174). The R1–S1 corridor (0.8269–0.8221) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/CHF, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.
USD/CHFRangebound
AUD/USD
0.7023 ▲0.31% Session H 0.7036 / L 0.6993 52W 0.6421–0.7277
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.7069 | 0.7043 | 0.7022 | 0.6975 | 0.6949 | 0.6929 |
AUD/USD opens the European session at 0.7023 (+0.31% vs. Thursday's close), at the 70th percentile of its 0.6421–0.7277 52-week range. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 0.6996. The 52-week range of 0.6421–0.7277 places AUD/USD at the 70th percentile — momentum is broadly constructive within the annual range.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 0.7022 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (0.7043) and R3 (0.7069). On the downside, S1 at 0.6975 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (0.6949) then S3 (0.6929). The R1–S1 corridor (0.7022–0.6975) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For AUD/USD, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.
AUD/USDBullishAbove R1
NZD/USD
0.5693 ▲0.20% Session H 0.5704 / L 0.5671 52W 0.5564–0.6092
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5746 | 0.5722 | 0.5702 | 0.5657 | 0.5633 | 0.5613 |
NZD/USD opens the European session at 0.5693 (+0.20% vs. Thursday's close), at the 24th percentile of its 0.5564–0.6092 52-week range. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 0.5678. The 52-week range of 0.5564–0.6092 places NZD/USD at the 24th percentile — price remains in the lower half of its annual range, reflecting structural headwinds.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 0.5702 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (0.5722) and R3 (0.5746). On the downside, S1 at 0.5657 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (0.5633) then S3 (0.5613). The R1–S1 corridor (0.5702–0.5657) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For NZD/USD, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.
NZD/USDRangebound
USD/CAD
1.4051 ▼0.05% Session H 1.4081 / L 1.4038 52W 1.3480–1.4299
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4177 | 1.4143 | 1.4100 | 1.4023 | 1.3989 | 1.3946 |
USD/CAD opens the European session at 1.4051 (-0.05% vs. Thursday's close), at the 70th percentile of its 1.3480–1.4299 52-week range. The intraday bias remains neutral-to-bearish while price holds below the daily pivot at 1.4066. The 52-week range of 1.3480–1.4299 places USD/CAD at the 70th percentile — momentum is broadly constructive within the annual range.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 1.4100 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (1.4143) and R3 (1.4177). On the downside, S1 at 1.4023 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (1.3989) then S3 (1.3946). The R1–S1 corridor (1.4100–1.4023) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/CAD, a weekly close below S1 would reinforce the corrective bias into next week.
USD/CADRangebound
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EUR/GBP
0.8384 ▼0.15% Session H 0.8399 / L 0.8371 52W 0.8371–0.8865
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.8464 | 0.8446 | 0.8421 | 0.8378 | 0.8360 | 0.8335 |
EUR/GBP opens the European session at 0.8384 (-0.15% vs. Thursday's close), just 0.15% above its 52-week floor at 0.8371. The intraday bias remains neutral-to-bearish while price holds below the daily pivot at 0.8403. The 52-week range of 0.8371–0.8865 places EUR/GBP at the 3th percentile — the annual support is the key line in the sand — hold or break determines the next directional leg.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 0.8421 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (0.8446) and R3 (0.8464). On the downside, S1 at 0.8378 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (0.8360) then S3 (0.8335). The R1–S1 corridor (0.8421–0.8378) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For EUR/GBP, a weekly close below S1 would reinforce the corrective bias into next week.
EUR/GBPRangeboundNear 52W Low
EUR/JPY
177.64 ▼0.04% Session H 177.82 / L 177.27 52W 175.70–187.94
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 178.82 | 178.36 | 178.04 | 177.26 | 176.80 | 176.48 |
EUR/JPY opens the European session at 177.64 (-0.04% vs. Thursday's close), just 1.11% above its 52-week floor at 175.70. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 177.58. The 52-week range of 175.70–187.94 places EUR/JPY at the 16th percentile — the annual support is the key line in the sand — hold or break determines the next directional leg.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 178.04 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (178.36) and R3 (178.82). On the downside, S1 at 177.26 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (176.80) then S3 (176.48). The R1–S1 corridor (178.04–177.26) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For EUR/JPY, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.
EUR/JPYRangeboundNear 52W Low
GBP/JPY
211.84 ▲0.12% Session H 211.97 / L 211.36 52W 199.06–219.60
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 212.97 | 212.35 | 211.97 | 210.97 | 210.35 | 209.97 |
GBP/JPY opens the European session at 211.84 (+0.12% vs. Thursday's close), at the 62th percentile of its 199.06–219.60 52-week range. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 211.35. The 52-week range of 199.06–219.60 places GBP/JPY at the 62th percentile — momentum is broadly constructive within the annual range.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 211.97 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (212.35) and R3 (212.97). On the downside, S1 at 210.97 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (210.35) then S3 (209.97). The R1–S1 corridor (211.97–210.97) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For GBP/JPY, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.
GBP/JPYRangebound
AUD/JPY
111.17 ▲0.39% Session H 111.26 / L 110.56 52W 98.82–114.95
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 111.35 | 111.08 | 110.91 | 110.46 | 110.19 | 110.02 |
AUD/JPY opens the European session at 111.17 (+0.39% vs. Thursday's close), at the 77th percentile of its 98.82–114.95 52-week range. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 110.63. The 52-week range of 98.82–114.95 places AUD/JPY at the 77th percentile — momentum is broadly constructive within the annual range.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 110.91 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (111.08) and R3 (111.35). On the downside, S1 at 110.46 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (110.19) then S3 (110.02). The R1–S1 corridor (110.91–110.46) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For AUD/JPY, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.
AUD/JPYBullishAbove R1
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USD/NOK
9.372 ▼0.22% Session H 9.410 / L 9.349 52W 9.144–10.297
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.474 | 9.448 | 9.420 | 9.367 | 9.341 | 9.313 |
USD/NOK opens the European session at 9.372 (-0.22% vs. Thursday's close), at the 20th percentile of its 9.144–10.297 52-week range. The intraday bias remains neutral-to-bearish while price holds below the daily pivot at 9.395. The 52-week range of 9.144–10.297 places USD/NOK at the 20th percentile — price remains in the lower half of its annual range, reflecting structural headwinds.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 9.420 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (9.448) and R3 (9.474). On the downside, S1 at 9.367 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (9.341) then S3 (9.313). The R1–S1 corridor (9.420–9.367) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/NOK, a weekly close below S1 would reinforce the corrective bias into next week.
USD/NOKRangebound
USD/SEK
9.897 ▲0.09% Session H 9.916 / L 9.861 52W 8.737–10.105
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.985 | 9.955 | 9.921 | 9.858 | 9.827 | 9.794 |
USD/SEK opens the European session at 9.897 (+0.09% vs. Thursday's close), at the 85th percentile of its 8.737–10.105 52-week range. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 9.891. The 52-week range of 8.737–10.105 places USD/SEK at the 85th percentile — momentum is broadly constructive within the annual range.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 9.921 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (9.955) and R3 (9.985). On the downside, S1 at 9.858 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (9.827) then S3 (9.794). The R1–S1 corridor (9.921–9.858) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/SEK, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.
USD/SEKRangebound
EUR/NOK
10.519 ▼0.40% Session H 10.567 / L 10.503 52W 10.503–12.012
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.650 | 10.614 | 10.587 | 10.524 | 10.488 | 10.461 |
EUR/NOK opens the European session at 10.519 (-0.40% vs. Thursday's close), just 0.16% above its 52-week floor at 10.503. The intraday bias remains neutral-to-bearish while price holds below the daily pivot at 10.551. The 52-week range of 10.503–12.012 places EUR/NOK at the 1th percentile — the annual support is the key line in the sand — hold or break determines the next directional leg.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 10.587 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (10.614) and R3 (10.650). On the downside, S1 at 10.524 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (10.488) then S3 (10.461). The R1–S1 corridor (10.587–10.524) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For EUR/NOK, a weekly close below S1 would reinforce the corrective bias into next week.
EUR/NOKBearishBelow S1Near 52W Low
NOK/SEK
1.0554 ▲0.45% Session H 1.0573 / L 1.0451 52W 0.9064–1.0573
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0798 | 1.0683 | 1.0595 | 1.0391 | 1.0277 | 1.0188 |
NOK/SEK opens the European session at 1.0554 (+0.45% vs. Thursday's close), just 0.18% below its 52-week high of 1.0573. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 1.0480. The 52-week range of 0.9064–1.0573 places NOK/SEK at the 99th percentile — upside momentum is intact; a break above the 52W high would signal trend extension.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 1.0595 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (1.0683) and R3 (1.0798). On the downside, S1 at 1.0391 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (1.0277) then S3 (1.0188). The R1–S1 corridor (1.0595–1.0391) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For NOK/SEK, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.
NOK/SEKBullishNear 52W High
Exotic Pairs
USD/TRY
49.596 ▲0.22% Session H 49.601 / L 49.466 52W 41.825–49.601
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49.699 | 49.638 | 49.564 | 49.428 | 49.367 | 49.293 |
USD/TRY opens the European session at 49.596 (+0.22% vs. Thursday's close), just 0.01% below its 52-week high of 49.601. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 49.502. The 52-week range of 41.825–49.601 places USD/TRY at the 100th percentile — upside momentum is intact; a break above the 52W high would signal trend extension.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 49.564 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (49.638) and R3 (49.699). On the downside, S1 at 49.428 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (49.367) then S3 (49.293). The R1–S1 corridor (49.564–49.428) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/TRY, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.
USD/TRYRangeboundAbove R1Near 52W High
USD/MXN
18.717 ▲1.68% Session H 18.717 / L 18.391 52W 16.855–18.768
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.637 | 18.577 | 18.492 | 18.347 | 18.287 | 18.202 |
USD/MXN opens the European session at 18.717 (+1.68% vs. Thursday's close), just 0.27% below its 52-week high of 18.768. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 18.432. The 52-week range of 16.855–18.768 places USD/MXN at the 97th percentile — upside momentum is intact; a break above the 52W high would signal trend extension.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 18.492 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (18.577) and R3 (18.637). On the downside, S1 at 18.347 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (18.287) then S3 (18.202). The R1–S1 corridor (18.492–18.347) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/MXN, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.
USD/MXNBullishAbove R1Near 52W High
USD/ZAR
16.40 ▲0.14% Session H 16.43 / L 16.33 52W 15.64–17.57
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16.57 | 16.52 | 16.45 | 16.33 | 16.28 | 16.21 |
USD/ZAR opens the European session at 16.40 (+0.14% vs. Thursday's close), at the 39th percentile of its 15.64–17.57 52-week range. The intraday bias remains neutral-to-bearish while price holds below the daily pivot at 16.40. The 52-week range of 15.64–17.57 places USD/ZAR at the 39th percentile — price remains in the lower half of its annual range, reflecting structural headwinds.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 16.45 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (16.52) and R3 (16.57). On the downside, S1 at 16.33 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (16.28) then S3 (16.21). The R1–S1 corridor (16.45–16.33) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/ZAR, a weekly close below S1 would reinforce the corrective bias into next week.
USD/ZARRangebound
USD/PLN
3.8820 ▼0.02% Session H 3.8933 / L 3.8741 52W 3.4750–3.9350
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.9290 | 3.9169 | 3.8999 | 3.8707 | 3.8586 | 3.8416 |
USD/PLN opens the European session at 3.8820 (-0.02% vs. Thursday's close), just 1.37% below its 52-week high of 3.9350. The intraday bias remains neutral-to-bearish while price holds below the daily pivot at 3.8877. The 52-week range of 3.4750–3.9350 places USD/PLN at the 88th percentile — upside momentum is intact; a break above the 52W high would signal trend extension.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 3.8999 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (3.9169) and R3 (3.9290). On the downside, S1 at 3.8707 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (3.8586) then S3 (3.8416). The R1–S1 corridor (3.8999–3.8707) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/PLN, a weekly close below S1 would reinforce the corrective bias into next week.
USD/PLNRangeboundNear 52W High
Informational purposes only — not investment advice. Pivot levels computed from Thursday's session OHLC via standard floor-pivot formula. Data sourced from MetaTrader 5 as of Thursday 22 October 2026 EU open. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
