US Session Crude Oil Report — 13 Oct 2026

WTI crude is trading at $90.86 in early New York session action, holding near its pivot point at $89.46 as the market digests overnight volatility and technical oversold conditions with RSI(14) at 22.5. Brent crude outperforms at $103.02, testing its 9-day EMA at $103.07 while the Brent-WTI spread widens to $12.16, pressured by tightening Atlantic Basin physical markets. Both benchmarks face downward momentum with WTI down 3.96% on the week, carving out a third consecutive bearish session as algorithmic selling accelerates below key moving averages.

The technical setup shows WTI struggling below all critical EMAs, with the 9-day at $92.34 acting as immediate resistance while Brent’s term structure remains in steep backwardation at -14.6% between Oct26 and Jul27 contracts. Pivot analysis suggests WTI’s next support cluster emerges at $72.17 (S1) should the $89.46 PP fail, though oversold conditions may trigger short-covering ahead of the Asian open. Brent’s RSI(14) at 38.9 shows marginally more room to the downside compared to WTI’s exhausted momentum readings.

Geopolitical tensions continue simmering with Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps naval activity elevating risks in the Strait of Hormuz, where 20 million barrels per day of crude flows remain exposed to potential disruption. The Bab-el-Mandeb chokepoint sees continued Houthi missile activity, forcing VLCCs to divert around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope at a seven-day sailing premium. These supply risks are counterbalanced by OPEC+ overproduction from Iraq and Russia, though Saudi Arabia maintains 100% compliance with its voluntary cuts. The cartel’s current output of 26.8 million barrels per day still lags the 27.4 million b/d call on OPEC, sustaining a structural 0.6 million b/d market deficit.

Today’s EIA inventory data reveals stable US commercial stocks at 427.3 million barrels, with Cushing hub inventories tightening to 24.3 million barrels as refinery utilization holds firm at 92.5%. The backwardation in WTI’s forward curve steepens, with Oct26 trading at a $10.71 premium to Jul27 contracts, signaling near-term physical tightness despite the broader selloff. US production remains rangebound at 13.95 million b/d, unable to capitalize on $90+ pricing due to Permian takeaway constraints and labor shortages.

Asian session traders will focus on whether WTI can defend its $89.46 pivot point overnight, with Shanghai crude futures likely to mirror any breakdown below this level. Brent’s $101.63 21-day EMA serves as critical resistance, while the $12+ Brent-WTI spread may attract arb flows into WTI contracts. Market sentiment remains fragile as algorithmic traders amplify moves in thin liquidity conditions, with OPEC+ compliance chatter and Hormuz tensions providing potential bullish offsets to the current technical bearishness. The session’s key inflection point rests at WTI’s $92.34 9-day EMA – a break above could trigger stop-loss covering, while rejection here may extend losses toward the $72.17 support zone.