US Session Crude Oil Report — 09 Oct 2026

WTI crude is trading at $90.86 in the US session, down 0.27% on the day as it struggles to recover from a steep weekly decline of nearly 4%, while Brent holds firmer at $103.02, up 0.75%, with the spread widening to $12.16 as Atlantic Basin tightness counters softer US fundamentals. The market remains under pressure with WTI’s RSI at oversold 22.5, testing the pivot point at $89.46, while Brent’s RSI at 38.9 shows marginally better resilience. Both contracts trade below their 9- and 21-day EMAs, with WTI’s $92.34 and Brent’s $103.07 acting as immediate resistance. The term structure reinforces bearish sentiment—WTI’s Oct26-Jul27 backwardation steepens to -10.8%, Brent’s to -14.6%—as prompt barrels face demand concerns.

Geopolitical tensions simmer but fail to ignite sustained bullish momentum. The Hormuz chokepoint remains elevated with IRGC naval activity disrupting tanker flows, while Houthi threats in Bab-el-Mandeb force VLCC diversions around the Cape, adding 7 days to voyages. OPEC+ discipline shows cracks as Iraq and Russia exceed quotas, though Saudi compliance holds at 100%. The group’s projected 0.6 mb/d deficit for Q4 offers limited support as global refinery runs dip seasonally. Today’s EIA data—if released—could shift sentiment, but last week’s meager 0.9 mb crude build and stagnant US production at 13.95 mb/d underscore a balanced physical market. Cushing stocks at 24.3 mb hover near operational lows, yet WTI fails to capitalize amid weak crack spreads.

Technically, WTI battles to reclaim its 50-day EMA at $90.23, with a breach below risking a test of S1 at $72.17. Brent’s stronger footing near its 50-day EMA at $97.21 suggests relative strength, though resistance at $103.07 (9-day EMA) caps upside. The Brent-WTI spread’s widening reflects European refinery demand and Atlantic crude tightness, but arb economics remain muted. Momentum favors sellers—WTI’s failure to hold $92.90 (21-day EMA) signals further downside, while Brent’s inability to break $104.00 keeps bulls sidelined.

For the Asian session, watch WTI’s overnight range between $89.46 (PP) and $92.34 (9-day EMA), with a break lower targeting $86.00. Brent’s key levels are $101.80 (front-month) and $103.07 (9-day EMA). OPEC+ rhetoric on quota compliance and any Hormuz escalation could spark volatility, but with macro headwinds persisting—USD strength, weak industrial data—the path of least resistance remains cautiously bearish. The market waits for fresh catalysts; until then, range-bound trading dominates.