US Session Crude Oil Report — 08 Oct 2026

WTI crude is trading at $90.86 in early US session action, holding just above the pivotal $89.46 level as the contract battles oversold conditions with a 22.5 RSI while Brent maintains a firmer posture at $103.02, testing its 9-day EMA at $103.07. The Brent-WTI spread builds to $12.16 as European benchmarks benefit from tighter Atlantic Basin fundamentals. Both contracts face steep weekly losses near 4% as demand concerns weigh, though Brent finds relative support from ongoing disruptions at Bab-el-Mandeb where Houthi attacks force VLCC diversions around Africa.

Technicals show WTI trapped between converging moving averages, with the 50-day EMA at $90.23 providing tentative support while resistance stacks at $92.34 (9-day EMA) and $92.90 (21-day EMA). The contract tests the lower Bollinger Band as momentum remains bearish, though the extreme RSI suggests potential for relief. Brent’s structure appears more constructive, holding above its 21-day EMA with a 38.9 RSI allowing room for upside. The term structure reinforces tight near-term supply with WTI Oct26/Jul27 backwardation at -10.8% and Brent at -14.6%, though the steep contango slope beyond 2027 reflects lingering recession fears.

Geopolitical tensions simmer with Iranian IRGC forces conducting tanker intercepts in Hormuz (20M bbl/d at risk) while US 5th Fleet escorts remain active. Market participants monitor Russia’s pledge to deepen export cuts after September overproduction, though Iraq’s compliance remains questionable. OPEC+ maintains its 0.6 mb/d deficit projection through December, with Saudi Arabia’s 100% compliance offsetting minor cheats. The EIA’s latest print shows stagnant US commercial inventories at 427.3 mb as refinery runs hold at 92.5%, though Cushing stocks at 24.3 mb keep WTI’s delivery hub balanced.

The session outlook hinges on whether WTI defends its 50-day EMA support at $90.23, with a break risking a test of $89.46 (pivot point) then $82.16 (S1). Brent’s upside faces resistance at $103.07 (9-day EMA), with a push above targeting $104.50, while failure to hold $101.80 (front-month backwardation level) could accelerate profit-taking. Asian session liquidity will focus on whether China’s Golden Week demand materializes, with overnight levels set at $89.50/$91.50 for WTI and $102/$104 for Brent. The market remains hypersensitive to Hormuz developments after last week’s false missile alert, with any escalation likely to trigger a squeeze through WTI’s R1 at $108.15. For now, the bears control momentum, but the structural backwardation and geopolitical floor prevent sustained breakdowns.