FX Morning Briefing — Wed 14 Oct 2026: USD/SEK Slides 0.74% as European Session Opens

European markets open on Wednesday 14 October 2026 with G10 FX showing mixed signals as the Asian session wraps up and traders position for Friday's US afternoon data. The top movers overnight are USD/SEK (-0.74%), USD/PLN (-0.63%), USD/NOK (-0.58%). The US Dollar Index (DXY) reflects accumulated Fed rate-cut expectations, with risk-sensitive currencies responding to equity futures and commodity prices in early London trade.

The European morning calendar is light — German and Spanish CPI finals confirm the disinflationary trend — before the key risk event arrives in the US session: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September) at 16:00 UTC. A beat would support USD broadly; a miss would renew pressure on USD/JPY near its 2026 floor and push EUR/USD back toward its 52-week high. Norges Bank's hawkish hold continues to anchor NOK outperformance, while exotic pairs trade in tight ranges ahead of the weekly close.

All 19 pairs below include live MT5 pivot levels (R1 R2 R3 / S1 S2 S3) computed from Thursday's full-session OHLC, 65-day candlestick charts with SMA20, SMA50 and Bollinger Bands (20,2), and forward-looking analysis for the EU and US sessions on Wed 14 Oct 2026.

Today's Economic Calendar

Time (UTC)	Event	CCY	Previous	Forecast	Actual
01:30	● CPI (YoY) (Sep)	CNY	0.8%	1.0%	0.9%
01:30	● CPI (MoM) (Sep)	CNY	0.4%	0.3%	0.2%
01:30	● PPI (YoY) (Sep)	CNY	3.8%	4.4%	5.0%
02:10	● ECB President Lagarde Speaks	EUR	—	—	—
02:30	● Exports (YoY) (Sep)	CNY	25.0%	25.5%	36.3%
02:30	● Imports (YoY) (Sep)	CNY	28.2%	24.5%	31.0%
02:30	● Trade Balance (USD) (Sep)	CNY	119.09B	116.80B	133.53B
05:30	● BoE Gov Bailey Speaks	GBP	—	—	—
06:00	● BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks	GBP	—	—	—
06:05	● BoC Gov Macklem Speaks	CAD	—	—	—
06:30	● WPI Inflation (YoY) (Sep)	INR	9.92%	10.18%	11.39%
07:00	● Spanish CPI (YoY) (Sep)	EUR	4.3%	4.9%	4.9%
07:00	● Spanish HICP (YoY) (Sep)	EUR	4.6%	5.0%	5.0%
08:00	● ECB's Elderson Speaks	EUR	—	—	—
08:15	● German Buba Vice President Buch Speaks	EUR	—	—	—
08:30	● ECB President Lagarde Speaks	EUR	—	—	—
09:00	● IEA Monthly Report	USD	—	—	—
09:40	● FOMC Member Bowman Speaks	USD	—	—	—
10:00	● Euro Summit	EUR	—	—	—
12:30	● Core CPI (MoM) (Sep)	USD	0.3%	0.2%	—
12:30	● Core CPI (YoY) (Sep)	USD	2.4%	2.5%	—
12:30	● CPI (YoY) (Sep)	USD	3.4%	3.6%	—
12:30	● CPI (MoM) (Sep)	USD	0.4%	0.6%	—
12:30	● Building Permits (MoM) (Aug)	CAD	-17.3%	2.9%	—
13:30	● US Leading Index (MoM)	USD	-0.1%	—	—
16:15	● ECB's Schnabel Speaks	EUR	—	—	—
18:00	● Beige Book	USD	—	—	—
20:30	● API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	USD	-2.090M	—	—

Major Pairs

EUR/USD

1.1196 ▼0.01% Session H 1.1200 / L 1.1191 52W 1.1149–1.2082

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
1.1273	1.1238	1.1218	1.1163	1.1129	1.1108

EUR/USD opens the European session at 1.1196 (-0.01% vs. Thursday's close), just 0.42% above its 52-week floor at 1.1149. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 1.1184. The 52-week range of 1.1149–1.2082 places EUR/USD at the 5th percentile — the annual support is the key line in the sand — hold or break determines the next directional leg.

Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 1.1218 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (1.1238) and R3 (1.1273). On the downside, S1 at 1.1163 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (1.1129) then S3 (1.1108). The R1–S1 corridor (1.1218–1.1163) marks the most probable intraday trading band.

For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For EUR/USD, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.

EUR/USDRangeboundNear 52W Low

GBP/USD

1.3256 ▲0.39% Session H 1.3258 / L 1.3202 52W 1.3009–1.3868

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
1.3304	1.3282	1.3244	1.3184	1.3163	1.3124

GBP/USD opens the European session at 1.3256 (+0.39% vs. Thursday's close), at the 29th percentile of its 1.3009–1.3868 52-week range. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 1.3222. The 52-week range of 1.3009–1.3868 places GBP/USD at the 29th percentile — price remains in the lower half of its annual range, reflecting structural headwinds.

Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 1.3244 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (1.3282) and R3 (1.3304). On the downside, S1 at 1.3184 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (1.3163) then S3 (1.3124). The R1–S1 corridor (1.3244–1.3184) marks the most probable intraday trading band.

For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For GBP/USD, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.

GBP/USDBullishAbove R1

USD/JPY

158.29 ▼0.20% Session H 158.64 / L 157.82 52W 151.53–163.98

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
159.55	159.15	158.88	158.20	157.80	157.52

USD/JPY opens the European session at 158.29 (-0.20% vs. Thursday's close), at the 54th percentile of its 151.53–163.98 52-week range. The intraday bias remains neutral-to-bearish while price holds below the daily pivot at 158.47. The 52-week range of 151.53–163.98 places USD/JPY at the 54th percentile — momentum is broadly constructive within the annual range.

Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 158.88 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (159.15) and R3 (159.55). On the downside, S1 at 158.20 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (157.80) then S3 (157.52). The R1–S1 corridor (158.88–158.20) marks the most probable intraday trading band.

For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/JPY, a weekly close below S1 would reinforce the corrective bias into next week.

USD/JPYRangebound

USD/CHF

0.8324 ▼0.25% Session H 0.8346 / L 0.8313 52W 0.7602–0.8382

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
0.8424	0.8386	0.8366	0.8307	0.8268	0.8248

USD/CHF opens the European session at 0.8324 (-0.25% vs. Thursday's close), just 0.70% below its 52-week high of 0.8382. The intraday bias remains neutral-to-bearish while price holds below the daily pivot at 0.8327. The 52-week range of 0.7602–0.8382 places USD/CHF at the 93th percentile — upside momentum is intact; a break above the 52W high would signal trend extension.

Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 0.8366 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (0.8386) and R3 (0.8424). On the downside, S1 at 0.8307 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (0.8268) then S3 (0.8248). The R1–S1 corridor (0.8366–0.8307) marks the most probable intraday trading band.

For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/CHF, a weekly close below S1 would reinforce the corrective bias into next week.

USD/CHFRangeboundNear 52W High

AUD/USD

0.6986 ▲0.40% Session H 0.6986 / L 0.6949 52W 0.6421–0.7277

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
0.7023	0.7009	0.6983	0.6943	0.6929	0.6903

AUD/USD opens the European session at 0.6986 (+0.40% vs. Thursday's close), at the 66th percentile of its 0.6421–0.7277 52-week range. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 0.6969. The 52-week range of 0.6421–0.7277 places AUD/USD at the 66th percentile — momentum is broadly constructive within the annual range.

Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 0.6983 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (0.7009) and R3 (0.7023). On the downside, S1 at 0.6943 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (0.6929) then S3 (0.6903). The R1–S1 corridor (0.6983–0.6943) marks the most probable intraday trading band.

For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For AUD/USD, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.

AUD/USDBullishAbove R1

NZD/USD

0.5614 ▲0.51% Session H 0.5617 / L 0.5578 52W 0.5576–0.6092

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
0.5644	0.5631	0.5608	0.5572	0.5559	0.5536

NZD/USD opens the European session at 0.5614 (+0.51% vs. Thursday's close), just 0.68% above its 52-week floor at 0.5576. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 0.5595. The 52-week range of 0.5576–0.6092 places NZD/USD at the 7th percentile — the annual support is the key line in the sand — hold or break determines the next directional leg.

Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 0.5608 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (0.5631) and R3 (0.5644). On the downside, S1 at 0.5572 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (0.5559) then S3 (0.5536). The R1–S1 corridor (0.5608–0.5572) marks the most probable intraday trading band.

For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For NZD/USD, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.

NZD/USDBullishAbove R1Near 52W Low

USD/CAD

1.4214 ▼0.45% Session H 1.4282 / L 1.4203 52W 1.3480–1.4297

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
1.4345	1.4316	1.4298	1.4250	1.4221	1.4202

USD/CAD opens the European session at 1.4214 (-0.45% vs. Thursday's close), just 0.58% below its 52-week high of 1.4297. The intraday bias remains neutral-to-bearish while price holds below the daily pivot at 1.4268. The 52-week range of 1.3480–1.4297 places USD/CAD at the 90th percentile — upside momentum is intact; a break above the 52W high would signal trend extension.

Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 1.4298 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (1.4316) and R3 (1.4345). On the downside, S1 at 1.4250 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (1.4221) then S3 (1.4202). The R1–S1 corridor (1.4298–1.4250) marks the most probable intraday trading band.

For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/CAD, a weekly close below S1 would reinforce the corrective bias into next week.

USD/CADBearishBelow S1Near 52W High

Cross Pairs

EUR/GBP

0.8447 -0.00% Session H 0.8449 / L 0.8442 52W 0.8437–0.8865

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
0.8478	0.8468	0.8457	0.8437	0.8427	0.8416

EUR/GBP opens the European session at 0.8447 (-0.00% vs. Thursday's close), just 0.12% above its 52-week floor at 0.8437. The intraday bias remains neutral-to-bearish while price holds below the daily pivot at 0.8447. The 52-week range of 0.8437–0.8865 places EUR/GBP at the 2th percentile — the annual support is the key line in the sand — hold or break determines the next directional leg.

Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 0.8457 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (0.8468) and R3 (0.8478). On the downside, S1 at 0.8437 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (0.8427) then S3 (0.8416). The R1–S1 corridor (0.8457–0.8437) marks the most probable intraday trading band.

For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For EUR/GBP, a weekly close below S1 would reinforce the corrective bias into next week.

EUR/GBPRangeboundNear 52W Low

EUR/JPY

177.31 ▲0.24% Session H 177.37 / L 176.47 52W 175.70–187.94

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
178.00	177.78	177.33	176.67	176.44	176.00

EUR/JPY opens the European session at 177.31 (+0.24% vs. Thursday's close), just 0.92% above its 52-week floor at 175.70. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 177.11. The 52-week range of 175.70–187.94 places EUR/JPY at the 13th percentile — the annual support is the key line in the sand — hold or break determines the next directional leg.

Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 177.33 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (177.78) and R3 (178.00). On the downside, S1 at 176.67 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (176.44) then S3 (176.00). The R1–S1 corridor (177.33–176.67) marks the most probable intraday trading band.

For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For EUR/JPY, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.

EUR/JPYRangeboundNear 52W Low

GBP/JPY

209.89 ▲0.02% Session H 209.89 / L 209.89 52W 199.06–219.60

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
211.26	210.59	210.22	209.17	208.50	208.13

GBP/JPY opens the European session at 209.89 (+0.02% vs. Thursday's close), at the 53th percentile of its 199.06–219.60 52-week range. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 209.55. The 52-week range of 199.06–219.60 places GBP/JPY at the 53th percentile — momentum is broadly constructive within the annual range.

Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 210.22 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (210.59) and R3 (211.26). On the downside, S1 at 209.17 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (208.50) then S3 (208.13). The R1–S1 corridor (210.22–209.17) marks the most probable intraday trading band.

For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For GBP/JPY, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.

GBP/JPYRangebound

AUD/JPY

110.77 ▲0.18% Session H 110.77 / L 110.77 52W 98.82–114.95

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
111.45	111.05	110.81	110.18	109.79	109.55

AUD/JPY opens the European session at 110.77 (+0.18% vs. Thursday's close), at the 74th percentile of its 98.82–114.95 52-week range. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 110.42. The 52-week range of 98.82–114.95 places AUD/JPY at the 74th percentile — momentum is broadly constructive within the annual range.

Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 110.81 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (111.05) and R3 (111.45). On the downside, S1 at 110.18 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (109.79) then S3 (109.55). The R1–S1 corridor (110.81–110.18) marks the most probable intraday trading band.

For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For AUD/JPY, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.

AUD/JPYRangebound

Nordic Pairs

USD/NOK

9.515 ▼0.58% Session H 9.592 / L 9.512 52W 9.144–10.297

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
9.619	9.600	9.585	9.551	9.532	9.517

USD/NOK opens the European session at 9.515 (-0.58% vs. Thursday's close), at the 32th percentile of its 9.144–10.297 52-week range. The intraday bias remains neutral-to-bearish while price holds below the daily pivot at 9.566. The 52-week range of 9.144–10.297 places USD/NOK at the 32th percentile — price remains in the lower half of its annual range, reflecting structural headwinds.

Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 9.585 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (9.600) and R3 (9.619). On the downside, S1 at 9.551 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (9.532) then S3 (9.517). The R1–S1 corridor (9.585–9.551) marks the most probable intraday trading band.

For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/NOK, a weekly close below S1 would reinforce the corrective bias into next week.

USD/NOKBearishBelow S1

USD/SEK

9.960 ▼0.74% Session H 10.044 / L 9.955 52W 8.737–10.105

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
10.140	10.094	10.064	9.988	9.942	9.913

USD/SEK opens the European session at 9.960 (-0.74% vs. Thursday's close), just 1.46% below its 52-week high of 10.105. The intraday bias remains neutral-to-bearish while price holds below the daily pivot at 10.018. The 52-week range of 8.737–10.105 places USD/SEK at the 89th percentile — upside momentum is intact; a break above the 52W high would signal trend extension.

Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 10.064 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (10.094) and R3 (10.140). On the downside, S1 at 9.988 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (9.942) then S3 (9.913). The R1–S1 corridor (10.064–9.988) marks the most probable intraday trading band.

For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/SEK, a weekly close below S1 would reinforce the corrective bias into next week.

USD/SEKBearishBelow S1Near 52W High

EUR/NOK

10.659 ▼0.20% Session H 10.702 / L 10.653 52W 10.653–12.012

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
10.810	10.781	10.731	10.651	10.623	10.572

EUR/NOK opens the European session at 10.659 (-0.20% vs. Thursday's close), just 0.05% above its 52-week floor at 10.653. The intraday bias remains neutral-to-bearish while price holds below the daily pivot at 10.702. The 52-week range of 10.653–12.012 places EUR/NOK at the 0th percentile — the annual support is the key line in the sand — hold or break determines the next directional leg.

Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 10.731 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (10.781) and R3 (10.810). On the downside, S1 at 10.651 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (10.623) then S3 (10.572). The R1–S1 corridor (10.731–10.651) marks the most probable intraday trading band.

For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For EUR/NOK, a weekly close below S1 would reinforce the corrective bias into next week.

EUR/NOKRangeboundNear 52W Low

NOK/SEK

1.0462 ▼0.08% Session H 1.0482 / L 1.0329 52W 0.9064–1.0497

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
1.0719	1.0603	1.0537	1.0355	1.0239	1.0173

NOK/SEK opens the European session at 1.0462 (-0.08% vs. Thursday's close), just 0.34% below its 52-week high of 1.0497. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 1.0421. The 52-week range of 0.9064–1.0497 places NOK/SEK at the 98th percentile — upside momentum is intact; a break above the 52W high would signal trend extension.

Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 1.0537 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (1.0603) and R3 (1.0719). On the downside, S1 at 1.0355 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (1.0239) then S3 (1.0173). The R1–S1 corridor (1.0537–1.0355) marks the most probable intraday trading band.

For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For NOK/SEK, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.

NOK/SEKRangeboundNear 52W High

Exotic Pairs

USD/TRY

49.359 ▲0.31% Session H 49.366 / L 49.191 52W 41.638–49.366

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
49.430	49.385	49.296	49.161	49.116	49.026

USD/TRY opens the European session at 49.359 (+0.31% vs. Thursday's close), just 0.01% below its 52-week high of 49.366. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 49.251. The 52-week range of 41.638–49.366 places USD/TRY at the 100th percentile — upside momentum is intact; a break above the 52W high would signal trend extension.

Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 49.296 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (49.385) and R3 (49.430). On the downside, S1 at 49.161 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (49.116) then S3 (49.026). The R1–S1 corridor (49.296–49.161) marks the most probable intraday trading band.

For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/TRY, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.

USD/TRYBullishAbove R1Near 52W High

USD/MXN

18.352 ▲0.53% Session H 18.396 / L 18.212 52W 16.855–18.768

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
18.609	18.521	18.388	18.168	18.080	17.947

USD/MXN opens the European session at 18.352 (+0.53% vs. Thursday's close), at the 78th percentile of its 16.855–18.768 52-week range. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 18.301. The 52-week range of 16.855–18.768 places USD/MXN at the 78th percentile — momentum is broadly constructive within the annual range.

Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 18.388 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (18.521) and R3 (18.609). On the downside, S1 at 18.168 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (18.080) then S3 (17.947). The R1–S1 corridor (18.388–18.168) marks the most probable intraday trading band.

For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/MXN, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.

USD/MXNBullish

USD/ZAR

16.48 ▼0.24% Session H 16.56 / L 16.45 52W 15.64–17.57

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
16.67	16.61	16.57	16.47	16.42	16.37

USD/ZAR opens the European session at 16.48 (-0.24% vs. Thursday's close), at the 44th percentile of its 15.64–17.57 52-week range. The intraday bias remains neutral-to-bearish while price holds below the daily pivot at 16.52. The 52-week range of 15.64–17.57 places USD/ZAR at the 44th percentile — price remains in the lower half of its annual range, reflecting structural headwinds.

Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 16.57 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (16.61) and R3 (16.67). On the downside, S1 at 16.47 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (16.42) then S3 (16.37). The R1–S1 corridor (16.57–16.47) marks the most probable intraday trading band.

For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/ZAR, a weekly close below S1 would reinforce the corrective bias into next week.

USD/ZARRangebound

USD/PLN

3.9014 ▼0.63% Session H 3.9319 / L 3.8999 52W 3.4750–3.9319

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
3.9747	3.9529	3.9395	3.9044	3.8826	3.8693

USD/PLN opens the European session at 3.9014 (-0.63% vs. Thursday's close), just 0.78% below its 52-week high of 3.9319. The intraday bias remains neutral-to-bearish while price holds below the daily pivot at 3.9178. The 52-week range of 3.4750–3.9319 places USD/PLN at the 93th percentile — upside momentum is intact; a break above the 52W high would signal trend extension.

Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 3.9395 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (3.9529) and R3 (3.9747). On the downside, S1 at 3.9044 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (3.8826) then S3 (3.8693). The R1–S1 corridor (3.9395–3.9044) marks the most probable intraday trading band.

For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/PLN, a weekly close below S1 would reinforce the corrective bias into next week.

USD/PLNBearishBelow S1Near 52W High

Informational purposes only — not investment advice. Pivot levels computed from Thursday's session OHLC via standard floor-pivot formula. Data sourced from MetaTrader 5 as of Wednesday 14 October 2026 EU open. Past performance is not indicative of future results.