USD/TRY is trading at 48.6201 (+0.56%), pressing against its all-time high of 48.6206 as the lira extends its relentless depreciation. The pair is firmly in an uptrend, trading above both the 20-day (48.1820) and 50-day (47.6453) SMAs, with the 50-day slope confirming sustained bullish momentum. The ascending 20-day dynamic channel shows support at 48.2804 (-3397.6 pips) and resistance at 48.6711 (+509.8 pips), while the 50-day channel mirrors this structure with support at 48.2480 (-3721.7 pips) and resistance at 48.6645 (+443.8 pips). Static levels highlight immediate support at S1 (48.1958, -4243 pips) and resistance at R1 (48.5568, -633 pips), though the pair has already breached R1 intraday.

The RSI at 83.2 screams overbought, but in TRY’s case, this is more a feature than a bug — momentum often ignores traditional extremes due to structural lira weakness. Today’s move tests the upper bounds of both dynamic and static resistance, with the 48.6206 all-time high acting as a psychological cap. ATR(14) at 0.2012 suggests today’s range is within normal volatility parameters, but any close above 48.6206 would signal another leg higher.

Short-term, the lira remains a one-way bet barring central bank intervention. Watch for a confirmed break above 48.6206 to target 48.6711 (dynamic resistance), while failure to hold above R1 (48.5568) could see a pullback toward 48.2804 (dynamic support). The next catalyst is Turkey’s September inflation print — another upside surprise could force the CBRT into another ineffective rate hike, perpetuating the depreciation cycle.