US Session Crude Oil Report — 28 Oct 2026

WTI crude is trading at $90.86 in early New York session action, testing the lower bounds of its weekly range as bearish momentum builds ahead of the weekly settlement. The contract faces selling pressure below its 9-day EMA at $92.34, with RSI(14) flashing oversold at 22.5. Brent holds firmer at $103.02, supported by tightening Atlantic Basin physical markets, though the Brent-WTI spread widens to $12.16 as Cushing inventories show signs of stabilization. Both benchmarks remain entrenched in backwardation, with WTI’s Oct26/Jul27 spread at -10.8%, reflecting near-term supply concerns despite the broader risk-off tone across commodities.

The technical setup shows WTI struggling to reclaim its pivot point at $89.46, with immediate resistance forming at the 50-day EMA ($90.23). A failure to hold this level opens the path toward S1 support at $72.17. Brent’s structure appears more resilient, trading above all key EMAs, but faces stiff resistance at the psychologically critical $105 level. The term structure signals persistent tightness, particularly in Brent, where front-month contracts command a $14.91 premium over the 12-month strip.

Geopolitical tensions continue to underpin prices despite the bearish technicals. Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps naval activity in the Strait of Hormuz remains elevated, with at least three tanker intercepts reported this week. The Bab-el-Mandeb chokepoint sees sustained Houthi drone activity, forcing VLCCs to divert around the Cape of Good Hope—adding seven days to Asia-bound voyages. These disruptions offset bearish demand signals from China, where refinery run cuts persist.

OPEC+ discipline shows minor cracks as Iraq and Russia exceed quotas by 120 kb/d collectively, though Saudi Arabia maintains full compliance. The cartel’s December meeting looms as a potential catalyst, with delegates signaling readiness to extend cuts into Q1 2027 if inventories continue to build. Today’s EIA data (due at 14:30 NY) is critical—a repeat of last week’s 0.9 mb crude build could accelerate selling pressure.

The session outlook hinges on whether WTI defends its 50-day EMA. Asian session traders will eye $89.46 (PP) as the fulcrum—a break below targets $86.00, while a rebound above $91.50 opens a retest of the 9-day EMA. Brent’s overnight range between $101.80 (front-month) and $103.50 (intraday high) sets the tone for APAC liquidity. With backwardation steepening and chokepoint risks simmering, the floor remains firm despite technical exhaustion. Market participants await fresh catalysts—either from EIA data or escalation in the Middle East—to break the current consolidation.