US Session Crude Oil Report — 14 Oct 2026

WTI crude is trading at $90.86 in the NYMEX session, down 0.27% on the day as it struggles to rebound from oversold conditions, with RSI(14) at 22.5 signaling extreme bearish exhaustion. Brent holds firmer at $103.02, up 0.75%, as the Brent-WTI spread widens to $12.16 amid tighter Atlantic Basin fundamentals. Both benchmarks remain under pressure on the week, down 3.96% and 3.36% respectively, as demand concerns counter supply risks.

Technicals paint a mixed picture. WTI tests its EMA50 at $90.23 but faces resistance from the descending EMA9 ($92.34) and EMA21 ($92.90), while Brent hovers near its EMA9 at $103.07. The pivot point at $89.46 acts as critical support for WTI, with a break risking a test of $72.17 (S1). Brent’s PP at $96.17 remains distant, but the contract shows relative strength, buoyed by European refinery demand. The term structure reinforces tight near-term supply, with WTI in steep backwardation (-10.8% Oct26-Jul27) and Brent even steeper at -14.6%.

Geopolitical tensions simmer beneath the price action. The Hormuz chokepoint remains elevated as IRGC naval activity disrupts tanker flows, while Houthi attacks in Bab-el-Mandeb force VLCCs onto longer Cape routes. OPEC+ discipline provides a floor, with the group maintaining cuts through December 2026. The market faces a 0.6 mb/d deficit as Saudi holds full compliance, though Iraq and Russia continue slight overproduction. Today’s EIA data shows a marginal 0.9 mb crude build, but draws in products and refinery runs at 92.5% suggest resilient demand. Cushing inventories at 24.3 mb keep Midland delivery risks contained.

The session outlook hinges on whether WTI can defend $90. A break below risks a flush toward $86.50, where algorithmic selling may accelerate. Brent’s resilience above $102 keeps the upside open, with $104.50 (R1) the next hurdle. Asian session traders will watch for follow-through, with overnight levels set at $89.50/$92.50 for WTI and $101.80/$104.20 for Brent. The backwardation curve suggests physical tightness persists, but macro fears linger—any rebound needs confirmation from equity markets and the dollar. For now, crude trades on a knife’s edge, balancing geopolitics against recession whispers.