US Session Crude Oil Report — 07 Oct 2026

WTI crude is trading at $90.86 in the US session, down 0.27% on the day as it struggles to hold above the psychologically key $90 level, while Brent edges up 0.75% to $103.02, testing the convergence of its EMA9 and EMA21. The Brent-WTI spread widens to $12.16, reflecting tighter Atlantic Basin fundamentals. Both benchmarks remain in steep backwardation, with WTI’s Oct26-Jul27 spread at -10.8%, signaling persistent near-term supply concerns despite the week’s bearish momentum.

Technicals paint a divergent picture—WTI’s RSI at 22.5 screams oversold, with the contract now trading 1.6% below its EMA9, while Brent’s RSI at 38.9 suggests room for further downside. The pivot point framework shows WTI clinging to its PP at $89.46, with S1 at $72.17 a distant support; Brent is more resilient, holding above its PP at $96.17 and eyeing R1 at $117.04. The 7-day performance remains ugly (-3.96% WTI, -3.36% Brent) as macro fears outweigh physical tightness.

Geopolitical tensions simmer but fail to ignite bullish momentum. The Hormuz chokepoint remains elevated with IRGC naval activity disrupting tanker flows, while Bab-el-Mandeb sees VLCCs diverting via the Cape—adding 7 days to voyages and tightening Atlantic Basin availability. OPEC+ discipline is fraying at the margins; Iraq and Russia are pumping above quota, though Saudi compliance stays ironclad. The group’s 0.6 mb/d deficit versus call on OPEC suggests structural tightness, but demand fears dominate sentiment. Fresh EIA data shows a negligible 0.9 mb crude build, with Cushing stocks at 24.3 mb and refinery runs at 92.5%—bullish cracks fail to offset broader risk-off flows.

The term structure’s backwardation steepens, particularly in Brent (-14.6% for Oct26-Jul27), as prompt barrels command premium pricing. WTI’s curve reflects Cushing tightness, though the RSI divergence hints at a near-term bounce. The session’s key watch is whether WTI defends $90 or breaks toward $89.46 PP—a failure here opens S1 at $72.17. Brent faces resistance at $103.07 (EMA9), with a break above targeting $104. Asian session levels to watch: WTI’s overnight low at $89.80 and Brent’s $102.50 support. Without fresh geopolitical sparks or OPEC+ jawboning, the path of least resistance is sideways-to-lower into the close.