US Session Crude Oil Report — 06 Oct 2026

WTI crude is trading at $90.86 in the NYMEX session, down 0.27% on the day as it extends its seven-day decline to nearly 4%, while Brent holds firmer at $103.02 with a 0.75% gain, narrowing the Brent-WTI spread to $12.16. The market faces technical exhaustion with WTI’s RSI at deeply oversold 22.5, though Brent shows marginally more resilience at 38.9. Both benchmarks test key moving averages—WTI struggles below its EMA9 at $92.34 while Brent flirts with its EMA9 at $103.07, creating a tug-of-war between short-covering and macro-driven selling pressure.

The technical setup reveals critical pivot levels in play. WTI battles to reclaim its PP at $89.46 after briefly dipping below, with resistance stacked at $108.15 (R1) and support looming at $72.17 (S1). Brent’s structure is more constructive, trading above its PP of $96.17 but facing stiff overhead supply near $117.04 (R1). The term structure signals tightening physical markets—both benchmarks show steep backwardation, with WTI’s Oct26/Jul27 spread at -10.8% and Brent’s at -14.6%, reflecting near-term supply concerns despite the broader risk-off tone.

Geopolitical tensions continue to underpin crude, particularly at critical chokepoints. The Strait of Hormuz remains elevated as IRGC naval activity disrupts tanker traffic, threatening 20M bbl/d of flows. Bab-el-Mandeb is under watch with Houthi attacks forcing VLCCs to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, adding seven days to voyages. Meanwhile, OPEC+ discipline is tightening the market—the group maintains cuts through December 2026, with Saudi adherence at 100% while Iraq and Russia slightly overproduce. The call on OPEC at 27.4 mb/d versus 26.8 mb/d output creates a 0.6 mb/d deficit, keeping structural support intact.

Today’s EIA inventory data shows a marginal 0.9 mb build in commercial crude stocks to 427.3 mb, while SPR levels hold at 283.8 mb (39.7% capacity). US production edges higher to 13.95 mb/d, but refinery utilization remains robust at 92.5%, limiting product-side weakness. Cushing inventories at 24.3 mb suggest no immediate delivery pressure, though WTI’s backwardation indicates prompt tightness.

For the NY session, traders focus on whether WTI can defend $90.00 psychological support as Brent tests the $103.00 handle. The overnight Asian session will key off tonight’s close—a break below $90.00 in WTI risks a run toward $72.17 (S1), while Brent must hold $96.17 (PP) to avoid accelerated liquidation. Upside remains capped by recession fears and a strong dollar, but the backwardation and chokepoint risks keep the floor firm. Watch for OPEC+ jawboning if prices slide further, with Saudi Arabia likely to reinforce supply discipline. The market is balancing macro pessimism against physical tightness—volatility is the only certainty.