Stocks Edge Higher as Treasury Yields Retreat; Oil Volatile Amid Geopolitical Tensions
MarketsFN Team
Stocks Edge Higher as Treasury Yields Retreat; Oil Volatile Amid Geopolitical Tensions
U.S. stocks closed modestly higher on the first trading day of October, with the S&P 500 rising 0.19% to 7,666.45 as Treasury yields retreated from multiyear highs. Crude oil prices diverged sharply, with WTI surging 3.00% to $93.13 amid reports of U.S. military deployments to the Middle East.
🇺🇸 US Session Overview
The major indices started Q4 with cautious gains as bond markets stabilized. The Nasdaq 100 outperformed with a 0.31% advance to 30,501.56, buoyed by tech stocks after Google unveiled its latest AI model. The Dow Jones eked out a 0.04% gain to 50,926.56, while small caps showed relative strength with the Russell 2000 climbing 0.35%. Boeing shares provided support after engineers approved a new contract, averting a strike.
📅 Economic Calendar Highlights
Economic data painted a mixed picture: Initial Jobless Claims fell to 197K (vs. 201K expected), while the ISM Manufacturing PMI showed expansion at 54.5 (slightly below 54.8 forecast). Notably, manufacturing prices surged to 77.9, well above expectations, signaling persistent inflationary pressures. Construction spending jumped 0.9% MoM, far exceeding forecasts.
💱 FX & Commodities
The dollar strengthened broadly, with EUR/USD falling 0.81% to 1.1249 as European PMIs showed weakening momentum. Commodities saw wild swings: silver surged 2.07% while gold gained 0.49%. Oil markets diverged sharply - WTI rallied on geopolitical tensions but Brent fell 0.96%. Cryptocurrencies extended gains, with Bitcoin up 1.48% to $84,787.
All eyes now turn to Friday's September jobs report, with traders seeking clarity on labor market strength. Asian markets open with Australia's trade balance miss already weighing on the AUD, while energy markets remain on edge amid Middle East tensions.
🇺🇸 US Indices — Session Close
| Index | Price | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,666.45 | ▲ +14.91 | ▲ +0.19% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 30,501.56 | ▲ +93.06 | ▲ +0.31% |
| Dow Jones | 50,926.56 | ▲ +20.51 | ▲ +0.04% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,806.63 | ▲ +9.77 | ▲ +0.35% |
💱 FX Majors
| Pair | Rate | Change % |
|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1249 | ▼ -0.81% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3201 | ▼ -0.24% |
| USD/JPY | 158.03 | ▲ +0.40% |
| AUD/USD | 0.6935 | ▼ -0.77% |
| USD/CHF | 0.8304 | ▼ -0.46% |
🛢️ Commodities & Crypto
| Asset | Price (USD) | Change % |
|---|---|---|
| Gold (XAU/USD) | 4,207.10 | ▲ +0.49% |
| Silver (XAG/USD) | 61.34 | ▲ +2.07% |
| Crude Oil (WTI) | 93.13 | ▲ +3.00% |
| Brent Oil | 102.54 | ▼ -0.96% |
| Natural Gas | 2.95 | ▼ -2.54% |
| Bitcoin | 84,787.37 | ▲ +1.48% |
| Ethereum | 2,702.96 | ▲ +0.72% |
📅 Economic Calendar
All times in UTC — Actual highlighted where available
| Time | Currency | Event | Imp. | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims | 🔴🔴🔴 | 197K | 201K | 198K |
| 13:45 | USD | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 🔴🔴🔴 | 55.9 | 57.0 | 53.9 |
| 14:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 🔴🔴🔴 | 54.5 | 54.8 | 54.6 |
| 14:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing Prices (Sep) | 🔴🔴🔴 | 77.9 | 72.9 | 71.1 |
| 01:30 | AUD | Trade Balance (Aug) | 🟡🟡 | 0.495B | 2.000B | 1.351B |
| 06:00 | GBP | Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Sep) | 🟡🟡 | -0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 06:00 | GBP | Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Sep) | 🟡🟡 | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.6% |
| 06:30 | CHF | CPI (MoM) (Sep) | 🟡🟡 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| 07:15 | EUR | HCOB Spain Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 🟡🟡 | 51.0 | 50.2 | 49.5 |
| 07:30 | CHF | procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 🟡🟡 | 55.3 | 56.3 | 57.1 |
| 07:45 | EUR | HCOB Italy Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 🟡🟡 | 50.4 | 50.1 | 49.6 |
| 07:50 | EUR | HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 🟡🟡 | 50.6 | 50.3 | 51.1 |
| 07:55 | EUR | HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 🟡🟡 | 53.9 | 53.8 | 54.3 |
| 08:00 | EUR | HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 🟡🟡 | 52.9 | 52.7 | 52.7 |
| 08:30 | GBP | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 🟡🟡 | 51.9 | 52.0 | 51.7 |
| 09:00 | EUR | Unemployment Rate (Aug) | 🟡🟡 | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% |
| 12:30 | USD | Continuing Jobless Claims | 🟡🟡 | 1,701K | 1,730K | 1,712K |
| 14:00 | USD | Construction Spending (MoM) (Aug) | 🟡🟡 | 0.9% | 0.0% | -0.1% |
| 14:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing Employment (Sep) | 🟡🟡 | 52.7 | 52.0 | 51.2 |
| 15:00 | USD | Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) | 🟡🟡 | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% |
| 01:30 | AUD | RBA Financial Stability Review | 🟡🟡 | — | ||
| 08:00 | GBP | BoE Gov Bailey Speaks | 🟡🟡 | — | ||
| 10:35 | EUR | German Buba President Nagel Speaks | 🟡🟡 | — | ||
| 12:00 | GBP | BoE MPC Member Mann Speaks | 🟡🟡 | — | ||
| 12:30 | GBP | BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks | 🟡🟡 | — | ||
| 13:30 | EUR | ECB President Lagarde Speaks | 🟡🟡 | — | ||
| 14:00 | USD | Fed Waller Speaks | 🟡🟡 | — | ||
| 15:30 | EUR | ECB's Schnabel Speaks | 🟡🟡 | — | ||
| 19:00 | USD | FOMC Member Bowman Speaks | 🟡🟡 | — | ||
| 19:05 | CAD | BoC Senior Deputy Governor Rogers Speaks | 🟡🟡 | — | ||
| 19:30 | USD | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | 🟡🟡 | — | ||
| 20:30 | USD | Fed's Balance Sheet | 🟡🟡 | — | 6,748B | |
| 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Sep) | 🟡🟡 | — | 2.4% | 1.8% |
Report published: October 01, 2026 — 22:21 CET
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