With the 10-year Treasury yield retreating from recent 5% highs and the S&P 500 dipping amid persistent inflation concerns, Polymarket's prediction markets offer a real-money gauge of investor conviction beyond traditional sentiment indicators. The VIX holding near 17 suggests relatively muted near-term volatility expectations, creating an intriguing contrast with the platform's crowd-sourced probability assessments on geopolitical and macroeconomic outcomes.

Polymarket Sentiment Tracker

What does the crowd believe? Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market platform, where traders stake real money on the outcomes of global events. Unlike polls or analyst forecasts, these markets carry skin-in-the-game — each probability reflects the collective judgment of thousands of participants who stand to gain or lose based on the accuracy of their views.

Data as of: 2026-10-29 08:50 UTC

How Prediction Markets Work

A prediction market is a contract that pays $1 if a specific event occurs, and $0 if it doesn't. If a contract trades at $0.72, the market implies a 72% probability of that outcome happening. The price is set by supply and demand: when more traders believe an event will occur, they buy the "Yes" contract, pushing the probability higher. This mechanism makes prediction markets one of the most reliable real-time probability aggregators available — often more accurate than expert panels or traditional surveys.

How to Read the Tables

Each row shows one active market. Yes Prob. is the current market-implied probability of the stated event occurring. No Prob. is the inverse (100% minus Yes). The Signal column classifies confidence: High confidence (≥65%) means the crowd has reached strong consensus; Uncertain (40–64%) means the outcome is genuinely open; Unlikely (<40%) means the crowd has largely ruled the event out. Volume indicates total money traded — higher volume means more reliable pricing. The small badge (e.g. +3.5pp 24h) shows how the probability shifted in the last 24 hours.

Monetary Policy

Central bank decisions move markets more than almost any other force. These prediction markets aggregate real-money bets on rate decisions, inflation prints, and recession risk — giving you a probabilistic read on where institutional and retail capital expects policy to land. A market pricing a rate cut at 75%+ is a strong consensus signal; one hovering near 50% reflects genuine uncertainty with potential for sharp re-pricing if data surprises.

Geopolitics & Policy

Political risk is notoriously hard to quantify — prediction markets are one of the few tools that translate it into actionable probabilities. The markets below track election outcomes, trade policy shifts, and geopolitical flashpoints. High-probability outcomes (≥65%) indicate crowd consensus; markets clustered near 50% signal contested terrain where a single headline can swing sentiment significantly.

Financial Markets

These markets directly price financial outcomes: index levels, asset price milestones, and key corporate events. Unlike traditional forecasts, prediction market probabilities update instantly as new information flows in. When volume is high ($1M+), the implied probability carries substantial informational weight and often leads traditional analyst consensus.

Macroeconomics

Macro prediction markets capture the crowd's view on economic trajectory — GDP growth, debt ceilings, technology disruption, and fiscal policy. These are slow-moving but high-impact themes: a shift of 10 percentage points in any of these markets can represent a meaningful reassessment of the economic outlook by thousands of informed traders.

Market Intelligence Commentary

Polymarket data reflects real-money crowd intelligence on key macro events. Current probabilities signal mixed sentiment across monetary policy and geopolitical risk.

Probabilities are sourced directly from Polymarket's Gamma API and represent real-money market-implied odds. Markets shown have minimum $5,000 liquidity. Data reflects live Polymarket pricing at the time of publication.