FX Morning Briefing — Mon 05 Oct 2026: USD/PLN Rallies 0.60% as European Session Opens
MarketsFN FX Desk
European markets open on Monday 05 October 2026 with G10 FX showing mixed signals as the Asian session wraps up and traders position for Friday's US afternoon data. The top movers overnight are USD/PLN (+0.60%), USD/MXN (-0.43%), GBP/USD (+0.34%). The US Dollar Index (DXY) reflects accumulated Fed rate-cut expectations, with risk-sensitive currencies responding to equity futures and commodity prices in early London trade.
The European morning calendar is light — German and Spanish CPI finals confirm the disinflationary trend — before the key risk event arrives in the US session: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September) at 16:00 UTC. A beat would support USD broadly; a miss would renew pressure on USD/JPY near its 2026 floor and push EUR/USD back toward its 52-week high. Norges Bank's hawkish hold continues to anchor NOK outperformance, while exotic pairs trade in tight ranges ahead of the weekly close.
All 19 pairs below include live MT5 pivot levels (R1 R2 R3 / S1 S2 S3) computed from Thursday's full-session OHLC, 65-day candlestick charts with SMA20, SMA50 and Bollinger Bands (20,2), and forward-looking analysis for the EU and US sessions on Mon 05 Oct 2026.
Today's Economic Calendar
| Time (UTC) | Event | CCY | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | ● S&P Global Services PMI (Sep) | JPY | 52.5 | 51.6 | 51.3 |
| 06:00 | ● S&P Global Services PMI (Sep) | RUB | 51.3 | — | 51.3 |
| 07:00 | ● CPI (MoM) (Sep) | TRY | 1.84% | 2.30% | — |
| 07:00 | ● CPI (YoY) (Sep) | TRY | 31.51% | 30.30% | — |
| 07:15 | ● HCOB Spain Services PMI (Sep) | EUR | 57.8 | 57.1 | — |
| 07:45 | ● HCOB Italy Services PMI (Sep) | EUR | 55.2 | 54.6 | — |
| 07:45 | ● German Buba President Nagel Speaks | EUR | — | — | — |
| 07:50 | ● HCOB France Services PMI (Sep) | EUR | 48.0 | 51.4 | — |
| 07:55 | ● HCOB Germany Services PMI (Sep) | EUR | 49.7 | 52.9 | — |
| 08:00 | ● ECB's Lane Speaks | EUR | — | — | — |
| 08:00 | ● HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Sep) | EUR | 52.0 | 53.1 | — |
| 08:00 | ● HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Sep) | EUR | 51.6 | 53.0 | — |
| 08:30 | ● S&P Global Composite PMI (Sep) | GBP | 52.5 | 51.7 | — |
| 08:30 | ● S&P Global Services PMI (Sep) | GBP | 52.5 | 51.7 | — |
| 09:00 | ● ECB's Schnabel Speaks | EUR | — | — | — |
| 13:45 | ● S&P Global Composite PMI (Sep) | USD | 56.0 | 58.4 | — |
| 13:45 | ● S&P Global Services PMI (Sep) | USD | 56.5 | 58.7 | — |
| 14:00 | ● ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Sep) | USD | 47.8 | — | — |
| 14:00 | ● ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | USD | 55.4 | 55.1 | — |
| 14:00 | ● ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Sep) | USD | 72.6 | — | — |
| 21:00 | ● NZIER Business Confidence (Q3) | NZD | 8% | — | — |
Major Pairs
EUR/USD
1.1246 ▲0.04% Session H 1.1246 / L 1.1234 52W 1.1215–1.2082
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.1436 | 1.1386 | 1.1314 | 1.1192 | 1.1142 | 1.1070 |
EUR/USD opens the European session at 1.1246 (+0.04% vs. Thursday's close), just 0.28% above its 52-week floor at 1.1215. The intraday bias remains neutral-to-bearish while price holds below the daily pivot at 1.1264. The 52-week range of 1.1215–1.2082 places EUR/USD at the 4th percentile — the annual support is the key line in the sand — hold or break determines the next directional leg.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 1.1314 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (1.1386) and R3 (1.1436). On the downside, S1 at 1.1192 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (1.1142) then S3 (1.1070). The R1–S1 corridor (1.1314–1.1192) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For EUR/USD, a weekly close below S1 would reinforce the corrective bias into next week.
EUR/USDRangeboundNear 52W Low
GBP/USD
1.3238 ▲0.34% Session H 1.3255 / L 1.3181 52W 1.3009–1.3868
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.3342 | 1.3307 | 1.3250 | 1.3158 | 1.3123 | 1.3067 |
GBP/USD opens the European session at 1.3238 (+0.34% vs. Thursday's close), at the 27th percentile of its 1.3009–1.3868 52-week range. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 1.3215. The 52-week range of 1.3009–1.3868 places GBP/USD at the 27th percentile — price remains in the lower half of its annual range, reflecting structural headwinds.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 1.3250 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (1.3307) and R3 (1.3342). On the downside, S1 at 1.3158 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (1.3123) then S3 (1.3067). The R1–S1 corridor (1.3250–1.3158) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For GBP/USD, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.
GBP/USDBullish
USD/JPY
157.80 ▼0.16% Session H 158.21 / L 156.94 52W 149.37–163.98
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 159.82 | 159.14 | 158.60 | 157.37 | 156.68 | 156.14 |
USD/JPY opens the European session at 157.80 (-0.16% vs. Thursday's close), at the 58th percentile of its 149.37–163.98 52-week range. The intraday bias remains neutral-to-bearish while price holds below the daily pivot at 157.91. The 52-week range of 149.37–163.98 places USD/JPY at the 58th percentile — momentum is broadly constructive within the annual range.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 158.60 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (159.14) and R3 (159.82). On the downside, S1 at 157.37 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (156.68) then S3 (156.14). The R1–S1 corridor (158.60–157.37) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/JPY, a weekly close below S1 would reinforce the corrective bias into next week.
USD/JPYRangebound
USD/CHF
0.8287 ▼0.25% Session H 0.8326 / L 0.8226 52W 0.7602–0.8382
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.8453 | 0.8417 | 0.8362 | 0.8272 | 0.8236 | 0.8181 |
USD/CHF opens the European session at 0.8287 (-0.25% vs. Thursday's close), just 1.15% below its 52-week high of 0.8382. The intraday bias remains neutral-to-bearish while price holds below the daily pivot at 0.8327. The 52-week range of 0.7602–0.8382 places USD/CHF at the 88th percentile — upside momentum is intact; a break above the 52W high would signal trend extension.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 0.8362 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (0.8417) and R3 (0.8453). On the downside, S1 at 0.8272 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (0.8236) then S3 (0.8181). The R1–S1 corridor (0.8362–0.8272) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/CHF, a weekly close below S1 would reinforce the corrective bias into next week.
USD/CHFRangeboundNear 52W High
AUD/USD
0.6951 ▲0.32% Session H 0.6975 / L 0.6913 52W 0.6421–0.7277
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.7008 | 0.6982 | 0.6955 | 0.6903 | 0.6877 | 0.6850 |
AUD/USD opens the European session at 0.6951 (+0.32% vs. Thursday's close), at the 62th percentile of its 0.6421–0.7277 52-week range. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 0.6929. The 52-week range of 0.6421–0.7277 places AUD/USD at the 62th percentile — momentum is broadly constructive within the annual range.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 0.6955 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (0.6982) and R3 (0.7008). On the downside, S1 at 0.6903 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (0.6877) then S3 (0.6850). The R1–S1 corridor (0.6955–0.6903) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For AUD/USD, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.
AUD/USDBullish
NZD/USD
0.5611 ▲0.15% Session H 0.5642 / L 0.5585 52W 0.5576–0.6092
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5673 | 0.5655 | 0.5628 | 0.5584 | 0.5566 | 0.5540 |
NZD/USD opens the European session at 0.5611 (+0.15% vs. Thursday's close), just 0.63% above its 52-week floor at 0.5576. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 0.5610. The 52-week range of 0.5576–0.6092 places NZD/USD at the 7th percentile — the annual support is the key line in the sand — hold or break determines the next directional leg.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 0.5628 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (0.5655) and R3 (0.5673). On the downside, S1 at 0.5584 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (0.5566) then S3 (0.5540). The R1–S1 corridor (0.5628–0.5584) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For NZD/USD, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.
NZD/USDRangeboundNear 52W Low
USD/CAD
1.4259 ▲0.28% Session H 1.4259 / L 1.4200 52W 1.3480–1.4262
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4290 | 1.4276 | 1.4248 | 1.4205 | 1.4190 | 1.4162 |
USD/CAD opens the European session at 1.4259 (+0.28% vs. Thursday's close), just 0.02% below its 52-week high of 1.4262. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 1.4233. The 52-week range of 1.3480–1.4262 places USD/CAD at the 100th percentile — upside momentum is intact; a break above the 52W high would signal trend extension.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 1.4248 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (1.4276) and R3 (1.4290). On the downside, S1 at 1.4205 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (1.4190) then S3 (1.4162). The R1–S1 corridor (1.4248–1.4205) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/CAD, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.
USD/CADRangeboundAbove R1Near 52W High
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EUR/GBP
0.8516 ▼0.02% Session H 0.8520 / L 0.8509 52W 0.8454–0.8865
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.8583 | 0.8565 | 0.8541 | 0.8500 | 0.8482 | 0.8459 |
EUR/GBP opens the European session at 0.8516 (-0.02% vs. Thursday's close), just 0.73% above its 52-week floor at 0.8454. The intraday bias remains neutral-to-bearish while price holds below the daily pivot at 0.8523. The 52-week range of 0.8454–0.8865 places EUR/GBP at the 15th percentile — the annual support is the key line in the sand — hold or break determines the next directional leg.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 0.8541 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (0.8565) and R3 (0.8583). On the downside, S1 at 0.8500 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (0.8482) then S3 (0.8459). The R1–S1 corridor (0.8541–0.8500) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For EUR/GBP, a weekly close below S1 would reinforce the corrective bias into next week.
EUR/GBPRangeboundNear 52W Low
EUR/JPY
177.56 ▼0.08% Session H 177.90 / L 176.60 52W 174.81–187.94
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 181.63 | 180.46 | 179.08 | 176.54 | 175.38 | 174.00 |
EUR/JPY opens the European session at 177.56 (-0.08% vs. Thursday's close), at the 21th percentile of its 174.81–187.94 52-week range. The intraday bias remains neutral-to-bearish while price holds below the daily pivot at 177.92. The 52-week range of 174.81–187.94 places EUR/JPY at the 21th percentile — price remains in the lower half of its annual range, reflecting structural headwinds.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 179.08 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (180.46) and R3 (181.63). On the downside, S1 at 176.54 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (175.38) then S3 (174.00). The R1–S1 corridor (179.08–176.54) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For EUR/JPY, a weekly close below S1 would reinforce the corrective bias into next week.
EUR/JPYRangebound
GBP/JPY
208.91 ▲0.16% Session H 208.94 / L 207.69 52W 199.06–219.60
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 212.26 | 211.12 | 209.85 | 207.44 | 206.30 | 205.03 |
GBP/JPY opens the European session at 208.91 (+0.16% vs. Thursday's close), at the 48th percentile of its 199.06–219.60 52-week range. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 208.71. The 52-week range of 199.06–219.60 places GBP/JPY at the 48th percentile — price remains in the lower half of its annual range, reflecting structural headwinds.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 209.85 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (211.12) and R3 (212.26). On the downside, S1 at 207.44 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (206.30) then S3 (205.03). The R1–S1 corridor (209.85–207.44) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For GBP/JPY, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.
GBP/JPYRangebound
AUD/JPY
109.69 ▲0.16% Session H 109.89 / L 109.22 52W 96.25–114.95
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 111.58 | 110.84 | 110.17 | 108.77 | 108.03 | 107.37 |
AUD/JPY opens the European session at 109.69 (+0.16% vs. Thursday's close), at the 72th percentile of its 96.25–114.95 52-week range. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 109.44. The 52-week range of 96.25–114.95 places AUD/JPY at the 72th percentile — momentum is broadly constructive within the annual range.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 110.17 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (110.84) and R3 (111.58). On the downside, S1 at 108.77 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (108.03) then S3 (107.37). The R1–S1 corridor (110.17–108.77) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For AUD/JPY, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.
AUD/JPYRangebound
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USD/NOK
9.622 ▲0.03% Session H 9.657 / L 9.553 52W 9.144–10.297
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.737 | 9.698 | 9.658 | 9.579 | 9.539 | 9.499 |
USD/NOK opens the European session at 9.622 (+0.03% vs. Thursday's close), at the 41th percentile of its 9.144–10.297 52-week range. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 9.618. The 52-week range of 9.144–10.297 places USD/NOK at the 41th percentile — price remains in the lower half of its annual range, reflecting structural headwinds.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 9.658 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (9.698) and R3 (9.737). On the downside, S1 at 9.579 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (9.539) then S3 (9.499). The R1–S1 corridor (9.658–9.579) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/NOK, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.
USD/NOKRangebound
USD/SEK
10.035 ▲0.11% Session H 10.065 / L 9.998 52W 8.737–10.081
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.170 | 10.125 | 10.074 | 9.979 | 9.934 | 9.884 |
USD/SEK opens the European session at 10.035 (+0.11% vs. Thursday's close), just 0.46% below its 52-week high of 10.081. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 10.030. The 52-week range of 8.737–10.081 places USD/SEK at the 97th percentile — upside momentum is intact; a break above the 52W high would signal trend extension.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 10.074 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (10.125) and R3 (10.170). On the downside, S1 at 9.979 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (9.934) then S3 (9.884). The R1–S1 corridor (10.074–9.979) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/SEK, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.
USD/SEKRangeboundNear 52W High
EUR/NOK
10.827 ▲0.02% Session H 10.847 / L 10.751 52W 10.673–12.012
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.000 | 10.959 | 10.892 | 10.784 | 10.743 | 10.675 |
EUR/NOK opens the European session at 10.827 (+0.02% vs. Thursday's close), just 1.44% above its 52-week floor at 10.673. The intraday bias remains neutral-to-bearish while price holds below the daily pivot at 10.851. The 52-week range of 10.673–12.012 places EUR/NOK at the 12th percentile — the annual support is the key line in the sand — hold or break determines the next directional leg.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 10.892 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (10.959) and R3 (11.000). On the downside, S1 at 10.784 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (10.743) then S3 (10.675). The R1–S1 corridor (10.892–10.784) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For EUR/NOK, a weekly close below S1 would reinforce the corrective bias into next week.
EUR/NOKRangeboundNear 52W Low
NOK/SEK
1.0424 ▲0.17% Session H 1.0440 / L 1.0379 52W 0.9064–1.0491
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0546 | 1.0499 | 1.0453 | 1.0360 | 1.0313 | 1.0267 |
NOK/SEK opens the European session at 1.0424 (+0.17% vs. Thursday's close), just 0.64% below its 52-week high of 1.0491. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 1.0406. The 52-week range of 0.9064–1.0491 places NOK/SEK at the 95th percentile — upside momentum is intact; a break above the 52W high would signal trend extension.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 1.0453 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (1.0499) and R3 (1.0546). On the downside, S1 at 1.0360 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (1.0313) then S3 (1.0267). The R1–S1 corridor (1.0453–1.0360) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For NOK/SEK, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.
NOK/SEKRangeboundNear 52W High
Exotic Pairs
USD/TRY
49.127 ▲0.28% Session H 49.143 / L 48.847 52W 41.593–49.143
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49.174 | 49.115 | 49.053 | 48.932 | 48.873 | 48.810 |
USD/TRY opens the European session at 49.127 (+0.28% vs. Thursday's close), just 0.03% below its 52-week high of 49.143. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 48.994. The 52-week range of 41.593–49.143 places USD/TRY at the 100th percentile — upside momentum is intact; a break above the 52W high would signal trend extension.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 49.053 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (49.115) and R3 (49.174). On the downside, S1 at 48.932 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (48.873) then S3 (48.810). The R1–S1 corridor (49.053–48.932) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/TRY, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.
USD/TRYRangeboundAbove R1Near 52W High
USD/MXN
18.207 ▼0.43% Session H 18.349 / L 18.108 52W 16.855–18.768
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.853 | 18.641 | 18.463 | 18.074 | 17.862 | 17.685 |
USD/MXN opens the European session at 18.207 (-0.43% vs. Thursday's close), at the 71th percentile of its 16.855–18.768 52-week range. The intraday bias remains neutral-to-bearish while price holds below the daily pivot at 18.252. The 52-week range of 16.855–18.768 places USD/MXN at the 71th percentile — momentum is broadly constructive within the annual range.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 18.463 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (18.641) and R3 (18.853). On the downside, S1 at 18.074 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (17.862) then S3 (17.685). The R1–S1 corridor (18.463–18.074) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/MXN, a weekly close below S1 would reinforce the corrective bias into next week.
USD/MXNBearish
USD/ZAR
16.67 ▼0.04% Session H 16.74 / L 16.56 52W 15.64–17.57
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.18 | 16.96 | 16.82 | 16.46 | 16.24 | 16.10 |
USD/ZAR opens the European session at 16.67 (-0.04% vs. Thursday's close), at the 53th percentile of its 15.64–17.57 52-week range. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 16.60. The 52-week range of 15.64–17.57 places USD/ZAR at the 53th percentile — momentum is broadly constructive within the annual range.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 16.82 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (16.96) and R3 (17.18). On the downside, S1 at 16.46 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (16.24) then S3 (16.10). The R1–S1 corridor (16.82–16.46) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/ZAR, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.
USD/ZARRangebound
USD/PLN
3.9210 ▲0.60% Session H 3.9210 / L 3.9210 52W 3.4750–3.9210
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.9327 | 3.9171 | 3.9074 | 3.8821 | 3.8665 | 3.8568 |
USD/PLN opens the European session at 3.9210 (+0.60% vs. Thursday's close), just 0.00% below its 52-week high of 3.9210. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 3.8918. The 52-week range of 3.4750–3.9210 places USD/PLN at the 100th percentile — upside momentum is intact; a break above the 52W high would signal trend extension.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 3.9074 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (3.9171) and R3 (3.9327). On the downside, S1 at 3.8821 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (3.8665) then S3 (3.8568). The R1–S1 corridor (3.9074–3.8821) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/PLN, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.
USD/PLNBullishAbove R1Near 52W High
Informational purposes only — not investment advice. Pivot levels computed from Thursday's session OHLC via standard floor-pivot formula. Data sourced from MetaTrader 5 as of Monday 05 October 2026 EU open. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
