FX Evening Briefing — Tue 29 Sep 2026: NZD/USD Closes Lower 0.65% — Asian Session Preview

Evening wrap-up for Tuesday 29 September 2026: as European markets close and the US session enters its final hours, G10 and emerging FX markets are closing with 10 pairs higher and 9 lower on the day. The standout movers are NZD/USD (-0.65%), AUD/USD (-0.63%), USD/NOK (+0.58%). End-of-day flows — institutional rebalancing, month-end positioning and any late US data surprises — are the main drivers for tonight's Asian handoff.

This evening briefing includes the full day's economic calendar with all released actuals, final intraday pivot levels, and updated candlestick charts for all 19 pairs. Pivot levels will reset at tomorrow's EU open based on today's completed daily bars.

All pivot levels (R1 R2 R3 / S1 S2 S3) are computed from yesterday's full-session OHLC. Asian session key levels and carry trade dynamics are highlighted in each pair's analysis below.

Today's Economic Calendar — Full Day Results

Time (UTC)	Event	CCY	Previous	Forecast	Actual
01:30	● RBA Rate Statement	AUD	—	—	—
04:30	● RBA Interest Rate Decision (Sep)	AUD	4.35%	4.60%	4.60%
07:00	● KOF Leading Indicators (Sep)	CHF	107.5	106.0	109.1
07:00	● Spanish CPI (YoY) (Sep)	EUR	4.3%	4.6%	4.9%
07:00	● Spanish HICP (YoY) (Sep)	EUR	4.6%	—	5.0%
09:30	● Italian 10-Year BTP Auction	EUR	4.10%	—	4.58%
10:00	● German Buba Mauderer Speaks	EUR	—	—	—
10:00	● German Buba President Nagel Speaks	EUR	—	—	—
10:00	● France Jobseekers Total (Aug)	EUR	3,143.0K	—	3,081.7K
11:00	● ECB President Lagarde Speaks	EUR	—	—	—
12:00	● Unemployment Rate (Aug)	BRL	5.3%	5.3%	5.3%
12:30	● GDP (MoM) (Jul)	CAD	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%
12:31	● GDP (MoM) (Aug)	CAD	0.0%	—	0.2%
13:00	● S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Jul)	USD	2.2%	2.2%	2.5%
13:00	● S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Jul)	USD	0.4%	—	0.0%
14:00	● CB Consumer Confidence (Sep)	USD	88.6	89.2	81.9
14:00	● JOLTS Job Openings (Aug)	USD	7.335M	7.230M	7.079M
15:00	● BoE MPC Member Mann Speaks	GBP	—	—	—
15:00	● FOMC Member Bowman Speaks	USD	—	—	—
16:40	● Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks	USD	—	—	—
18:00	● FOMC Member Williams Speaks	USD	—	—	—
18:00	● ECB's Lane Speaks	EUR	—	—	—
19:00	● Fed Waller Speaks	USD	—	—	—
20:30	● API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	USD	1.786M	-1.900M	—
23:50	● Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug)	JPY	-0.2%	1.4%	—

Major Pairs

EUR/USD

1.1337 ▼0.29% Day H 1.1374 / L 1.1311 52W 1.1311–1.2082

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
1.1428	1.1409	1.1390	1.1352	1.1333	1.1314

End-of-day snapshot for EUR/USD: closing at 1.1337 (-0.29% on the day), just 0.23% above its 52-week floor at 1.1311. Today's full-session range of 1.1311–1.1374 (0.0063 points). The daily close below the pivot (1.1371) signals bearish momentum into tomorrow's Asian open.

For tomorrow's Asian open, the key pivot reference levels remain: R1 1.1390 / R2 1.1409 / R3 1.1428 on the upside and S1 1.1352 / S2 1.1333 / S3 1.1314 on the downside. Asian session liquidity is typically thinner, so gaps through pivot levels should be monitored carefully.

EUR/USD finishes the day the annual support is under watch — a close below would reset the technical outlook bearish. The 52-week range of 1.1311–1.2082 places the pair at the 3th percentile. Key overnight risk: Asian economic data and any after-hours US developments that could reprice the USD complex before London re-opens.

EUR/USDRangeboundBelow S1Near 52W Low

GBP/USD

1.3227 ▼0.20% Day H 1.3257 / L 1.3201 52W 1.3009–1.3868

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
1.3337	1.3308	1.3281	1.3224	1.3195	1.3168

End-of-day snapshot for GBP/USD: closing at 1.3227 (-0.20% on the day), at the 25th percentile of its 1.3009–1.3868 52-week range. Today's full-session range of 1.3201–1.3257 (0.0056 points). The daily close below the pivot (1.3252) signals bearish momentum into tomorrow's Asian open.

For tomorrow's Asian open, the key pivot reference levels remain: R1 1.3281 / R2 1.3308 / R3 1.3337 on the upside and S1 1.3224 / S2 1.3195 / S3 1.3168 on the downside. Asian session liquidity is typically thinner, so gaps through pivot levels should be monitored carefully.

GBP/USD finishes the day the pair is ending the day in the lower half of its annual range, keeping bears in control. The 52-week range of 1.3009–1.3868 places the pair at the 25th percentile. Key overnight risk: Asian economic data and any after-hours US developments that could reprice the USD complex before London re-opens.

GBP/USDRangebound

USD/JPY

157.41 ▲0.02% Day H 157.71 / L 156.98 52W 149.37–163.98

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
159.33	158.59	157.98	156.63	155.89	155.28

End-of-day snapshot for USD/JPY: closing at 157.41 (+0.02% on the day), at the 55th percentile of its 149.37–163.98 52-week range. Today's full-session range of 156.98–157.71 (0.73 points). The daily close above the pivot (157.24) signals bullish continuation into tomorrow's Asian open.

For tomorrow's Asian open, the key pivot reference levels remain: R1 157.98 / R2 158.59 / R3 159.33 on the upside and S1 156.63 / S2 155.89 / S3 155.28 on the downside. Asian session liquidity is typically thinner, so gaps through pivot levels should be monitored carefully.

USD/JPY finishes the day the pair is closing in the upper half of its annual range, a constructive sign for bulls. The 52-week range of 149.37–163.98 places the pair at the 55th percentile. Key overnight risk: Asian economic data and any after-hours US developments that could reprice the USD complex before London re-opens.

USD/JPYRangebound

USD/CHF

0.8356 ▲0.47% Day H 0.8357 / L 0.8313 52W 0.7602–0.8357

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
0.8387	0.8357	0.8337	0.8288	0.8258	0.8238

End-of-day snapshot for USD/CHF: closing at 0.8356 (+0.47% on the day), just 0.00% below its 52-week high of 0.8357. Today's full-session range of 0.8313–0.8357 (0.0043 points). The daily close above the pivot (0.8307) signals bullish continuation into tomorrow's Asian open.

For tomorrow's Asian open, the key pivot reference levels remain: R1 0.8337 / R2 0.8357 / R3 0.8387 on the upside and S1 0.8288 / S2 0.8258 / S3 0.8238 on the downside. Asian session liquidity is typically thinner, so gaps through pivot levels should be monitored carefully.

USD/CHF finishes the day the trend is intact; bulls will target a break above the annual high on the next catalyst. The 52-week range of 0.7602–0.8357 places the pair at the 100th percentile. Key overnight risk: Asian economic data and any after-hours US developments that could reprice the USD complex before London re-opens.

USD/CHFBullishAbove R1Near 52W High

AUD/USD

0.6972 ▼0.63% Day H 0.7029 / L 0.6972 52W 0.6421–0.7277

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
0.7069	0.7054	0.7035	0.7001	0.6986	0.6967

End-of-day snapshot for AUD/USD: closing at 0.6972 (-0.63% on the day), at the 64th percentile of its 0.6421–0.7277 52-week range. Today's full-session range of 0.6972–0.7029 (0.0057 points). The daily close below the pivot (0.7020) signals bearish momentum into tomorrow's Asian open.

For tomorrow's Asian open, the key pivot reference levels remain: R1 0.7035 / R2 0.7054 / R3 0.7069 on the upside and S1 0.7001 / S2 0.6986 / S3 0.6967 on the downside. Asian session liquidity is typically thinner, so gaps through pivot levels should be monitored carefully.

AUD/USD finishes the day the pair is closing in the upper half of its annual range, a constructive sign for bulls. The 52-week range of 0.6421–0.7277 places the pair at the 64th percentile. Key overnight risk: Asian economic data and any after-hours US developments that could reprice the USD complex before London re-opens.

AUD/USDBearishBelow S1

NZD/USD

0.5628 ▼0.65% Day H 0.5676 / L 0.5625 52W 0.5576–0.6092

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
0.5723	0.5705	0.5685	0.5647	0.5628	0.5608

End-of-day snapshot for NZD/USD: closing at 0.5628 (-0.65% on the day), just 0.93% above its 52-week floor at 0.5576. Today's full-session range of 0.5625–0.5676 (0.0051 points). The daily close below the pivot (0.5666) signals bearish momentum into tomorrow's Asian open.

For tomorrow's Asian open, the key pivot reference levels remain: R1 0.5685 / R2 0.5705 / R3 0.5723 on the upside and S1 0.5647 / S2 0.5628 / S3 0.5608 on the downside. Asian session liquidity is typically thinner, so gaps through pivot levels should be monitored carefully.

NZD/USD finishes the day the annual support is under watch — a close below would reset the technical outlook bearish. The 52-week range of 0.5576–0.6092 places the pair at the 10th percentile. Key overnight risk: Asian economic data and any after-hours US developments that could reprice the USD complex before London re-opens.

NZD/USDBearishBelow S1Near 52W Low

USD/CAD

1.4188 ▲0.11% Day H 1.4201 / L 1.4167 52W 1.3480–1.4247

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
1.4226	1.4202	1.4187	1.4148	1.4123	1.4109

End-of-day snapshot for USD/CAD: closing at 1.4188 (+0.11% on the day), just 0.42% below its 52-week high of 1.4247. Today's full-session range of 1.4167–1.4201 (0.0033 points). The daily close above the pivot (1.4162) signals bullish continuation into tomorrow's Asian open.

For tomorrow's Asian open, the key pivot reference levels remain: R1 1.4187 / R2 1.4202 / R3 1.4226 on the upside and S1 1.4148 / S2 1.4123 / S3 1.4109 on the downside. Asian session liquidity is typically thinner, so gaps through pivot levels should be monitored carefully.

USD/CAD finishes the day the trend is intact; bulls will target a break above the annual high on the next catalyst. The 52-week range of 1.3480–1.4247 places the pair at the 92th percentile. Key overnight risk: Asian economic data and any after-hours US developments that could reprice the USD complex before London re-opens.

USD/CADRangeboundAbove R1Near 52W High

Cross Pairs

EUR/GBP

0.8577 +0.00% Day H 0.8585 / L 0.8567 52W 0.8454–0.8865

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
0.8637	0.8620	0.8598	0.8560	0.8542	0.8521

End-of-day snapshot for EUR/GBP: closing at 0.8577 (+0.00% on the day), just 1.46% above its 52-week floor at 0.8454. Today's full-session range of 0.8567–0.8585 (0.0018 points). The daily close below the pivot (0.8581) signals bearish momentum into tomorrow's Asian open.

For tomorrow's Asian open, the key pivot reference levels remain: R1 0.8598 / R2 0.8620 / R3 0.8637 on the upside and S1 0.8560 / S2 0.8542 / S3 0.8521 on the downside. Asian session liquidity is typically thinner, so gaps through pivot levels should be monitored carefully.

EUR/GBP finishes the day the annual support is under watch — a close below would reset the technical outlook bearish. The 52-week range of 0.8454–0.8865 places the pair at the 30th percentile. Key overnight risk: Asian economic data and any after-hours US developments that could reprice the USD complex before London re-opens.

EUR/GBPRangeboundNear 52W Low

EUR/JPY

178.50 ▼0.25% Day H 179.12 / L 178.29 52W 174.81–187.94

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
181.24	180.48	179.71	178.18	177.42	176.65

End-of-day snapshot for EUR/JPY: closing at 178.50 (-0.25% on the day), at the 28th percentile of its 174.81–187.94 52-week range. Today's full-session range of 178.29–179.12 (0.83 points). The daily close below the pivot (178.95) signals bearish momentum into tomorrow's Asian open.

For tomorrow's Asian open, the key pivot reference levels remain: R1 179.71 / R2 180.48 / R3 181.24 on the upside and S1 178.18 / S2 177.42 / S3 176.65 on the downside. Asian session liquidity is typically thinner, so gaps through pivot levels should be monitored carefully.

EUR/JPY finishes the day the pair is ending the day in the lower half of its annual range, keeping bears in control. The 52-week range of 174.81–187.94 places the pair at the 28th percentile. Key overnight risk: Asian economic data and any after-hours US developments that could reprice the USD complex before London re-opens.

EUR/JPYRangebound

GBP/JPY

208.09 ▼0.22% Day H 208.75 / L 208.00 52W 199.06–219.60

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
210.44	209.71	209.13	207.82	207.09	206.51

End-of-day snapshot for GBP/JPY: closing at 208.09 (-0.22% on the day), at the 44th percentile of its 199.06–219.60 52-week range. Today's full-session range of 208.00–208.75 (0.75 points). The daily close below the pivot (208.40) signals bearish momentum into tomorrow's Asian open.

For tomorrow's Asian open, the key pivot reference levels remain: R1 209.13 / R2 209.71 / R3 210.44 on the upside and S1 207.82 / S2 207.09 / S3 206.51 on the downside. Asian session liquidity is typically thinner, so gaps through pivot levels should be monitored carefully.

GBP/JPY finishes the day the pair is ending the day in the lower half of its annual range, keeping bears in control. The 52-week range of 199.06–219.60 places the pair at the 44th percentile. Key overnight risk: Asian economic data and any after-hours US developments that could reprice the USD complex before London re-opens.

GBP/JPYRangebound

AUD/JPY

109.98 ▼0.40% Day H 110.69 / L 109.82 52W 96.25–114.95

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
111.89	111.39	110.90	109.92	109.41	108.93

End-of-day snapshot for AUD/JPY: closing at 109.98 (-0.40% on the day), at the 73th percentile of its 96.25–114.95 52-week range. Today's full-session range of 109.82–110.69 (0.87 points). The daily close below the pivot (110.40) signals bearish momentum into tomorrow's Asian open.

For tomorrow's Asian open, the key pivot reference levels remain: R1 110.90 / R2 111.39 / R3 111.89 on the upside and S1 109.92 / S2 109.41 / S3 108.93 on the downside. Asian session liquidity is typically thinner, so gaps through pivot levels should be monitored carefully.

AUD/JPY finishes the day the pair is closing in the upper half of its annual range, a constructive sign for bulls. The 52-week range of 96.25–114.95 places the pair at the 73th percentile. Key overnight risk: Asian economic data and any after-hours US developments that could reprice the USD complex before London re-opens.

AUD/JPYBearish

Nordic Pairs

USD/NOK

9.586 ▲0.58% Day H 9.609 / L 9.515 52W 9.144–10.297

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
9.615	9.581	9.556	9.497	9.463	9.437

End-of-day snapshot for USD/NOK: closing at 9.586 (+0.58% on the day), at the 38th percentile of its 9.144–10.297 52-week range. Today's full-session range of 9.515–9.609 (0.094 points). The daily close above the pivot (9.522) signals bullish continuation into tomorrow's Asian open.

For tomorrow's Asian open, the key pivot reference levels remain: R1 9.556 / R2 9.581 / R3 9.615 on the upside and S1 9.497 / S2 9.463 / S3 9.437 on the downside. Asian session liquidity is typically thinner, so gaps through pivot levels should be monitored carefully.

USD/NOK finishes the day the pair is ending the day in the lower half of its annual range, keeping bears in control. The 52-week range of 9.144–10.297 places the pair at the 38th percentile. Key overnight risk: Asian economic data and any after-hours US developments that could reprice the USD complex before London re-opens.

USD/NOKBullishAbove R1

USD/SEK

9.986 ▲0.31% Day H 10.016 / L 9.927 52W 8.737–10.016

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
10.096	10.043	9.999	9.902	9.849	9.805

End-of-day snapshot for USD/SEK: closing at 9.986 (+0.31% on the day), just 0.30% below its 52-week high of 10.016. Today's full-session range of 9.927–10.016 (0.089 points). The daily close above the pivot (9.946) signals bullish continuation into tomorrow's Asian open.

For tomorrow's Asian open, the key pivot reference levels remain: R1 9.999 / R2 10.043 / R3 10.096 on the upside and S1 9.902 / S2 9.849 / S3 9.805 on the downside. Asian session liquidity is typically thinner, so gaps through pivot levels should be monitored carefully.

USD/SEK finishes the day the trend is intact; bulls will target a break above the annual high on the next catalyst. The 52-week range of 8.737–10.016 places the pair at the 98th percentile. Key overnight risk: Asian economic data and any after-hours US developments that could reprice the USD complex before London re-opens.

USD/SEKBullishNear 52W High

EUR/NOK

10.874 ▲0.30% Day H 10.891 / L 10.809 52W 10.673–12.012

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
10.926	10.889	10.865	10.805	10.768	10.745

End-of-day snapshot for EUR/NOK: closing at 10.874 (+0.30% on the day), at the 15th percentile of its 10.673–12.012 52-week range. Today's full-session range of 10.809–10.891 (0.082 points). The daily close above the pivot (10.828) signals bullish continuation into tomorrow's Asian open.

For tomorrow's Asian open, the key pivot reference levels remain: R1 10.865 / R2 10.889 / R3 10.926 on the upside and S1 10.805 / S2 10.768 / S3 10.745 on the downside. Asian session liquidity is typically thinner, so gaps through pivot levels should be monitored carefully.

EUR/NOK finishes the day the pair is ending the day in the lower half of its annual range, keeping bears in control. The 52-week range of 10.673–12.012 places the pair at the 15th percentile. Key overnight risk: Asian economic data and any after-hours US developments that could reprice the USD complex before London re-opens.

EUR/NOKRangeboundAbove R1

NOK/SEK

1.0412 ▼0.17% Day H 1.0454 / L 1.0364 52W 0.9064–1.0491

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
1.0712	1.0601	1.0516	1.0319	1.0209	1.0123

End-of-day snapshot for NOK/SEK: closing at 1.0412 (-0.17% on the day), just 0.76% below its 52-week high of 1.0491. Today's full-session range of 1.0364–1.0454 (0.0090 points). The daily close above the pivot (1.0405) signals bullish continuation into tomorrow's Asian open.

For tomorrow's Asian open, the key pivot reference levels remain: R1 1.0516 / R2 1.0601 / R3 1.0712 on the upside and S1 1.0319 / S2 1.0209 / S3 1.0123 on the downside. Asian session liquidity is typically thinner, so gaps through pivot levels should be monitored carefully.

NOK/SEK finishes the day the trend is intact; bulls will target a break above the annual high on the next catalyst. The 52-week range of 0.9064–1.0491 places the pair at the 94th percentile. Key overnight risk: Asian economic data and any after-hours US developments that could reprice the USD complex before London re-opens.

NOK/SEKRangeboundNear 52W High

Exotic Pairs

USD/TRY

48.996 ▲0.19% Day H 49.006 / L 48.845 52W 41.415–49.010

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
49.184	49.097	49.000	48.815	48.728	48.631

End-of-day snapshot for USD/TRY: closing at 48.996 (+0.19% on the day), just 0.03% below its 52-week high of 49.010. Today's full-session range of 48.845–49.006 (0.161 points). The daily close above the pivot (48.913) signals bullish continuation into tomorrow's Asian open.

For tomorrow's Asian open, the key pivot reference levels remain: R1 49.000 / R2 49.097 / R3 49.184 on the upside and S1 48.815 / S2 48.728 / S3 48.631 on the downside. Asian session liquidity is typically thinner, so gaps through pivot levels should be monitored carefully.

USD/TRY finishes the day the trend is intact; bulls will target a break above the annual high on the next catalyst. The 52-week range of 41.415–49.010 places the pair at the 100th percentile. Key overnight risk: Asian economic data and any after-hours US developments that could reprice the USD complex before London re-opens.

USD/TRYRangeboundNear 52W High

USD/MXN

17.964 ▼0.10% Day H 18.021 / L 17.870 52W 16.855–18.768

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
18.450	18.228	18.105	17.759	17.537	17.414

End-of-day snapshot for USD/MXN: closing at 17.964 (-0.10% on the day), at the 58th percentile of its 16.855–18.768 52-week range. Today's full-session range of 17.870–18.021 (0.150 points). The daily close above the pivot (17.882) signals bullish continuation into tomorrow's Asian open.

For tomorrow's Asian open, the key pivot reference levels remain: R1 18.105 / R2 18.228 / R3 18.450 on the upside and S1 17.759 / S2 17.537 / S3 17.414 on the downside. Asian session liquidity is typically thinner, so gaps through pivot levels should be monitored carefully.

USD/MXN finishes the day the pair is closing in the upper half of its annual range, a constructive sign for bulls. The 52-week range of 16.855–18.768 places the pair at the 58th percentile. Key overnight risk: Asian economic data and any after-hours US developments that could reprice the USD complex before London re-opens.

USD/MXNRangebound

USD/ZAR

16.42 ▲0.14% Day H 16.46 / L 16.36 52W 15.64–17.57

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
16.65	16.56	16.47	16.29	16.19	16.11

End-of-day snapshot for USD/ZAR: closing at 16.42 (+0.14% on the day), at the 40th percentile of its 15.64–17.57 52-week range. Today's full-session range of 16.36–16.46 (0.10 points). The daily close above the pivot (16.37) signals bullish continuation into tomorrow's Asian open.

For tomorrow's Asian open, the key pivot reference levels remain: R1 16.47 / R2 16.56 / R3 16.65 on the upside and S1 16.29 / S2 16.19 / S3 16.11 on the downside. Asian session liquidity is typically thinner, so gaps through pivot levels should be monitored carefully.

USD/ZAR finishes the day the pair is ending the day in the lower half of its annual range, keeping bears in control. The 52-week range of 15.64–17.57 places the pair at the 40th percentile. Key overnight risk: Asian economic data and any after-hours US developments that could reprice the USD complex before London re-opens.

USD/ZARRangebound

USD/PLN

3.8540 ▲0.44% Day H 3.8585 / L 3.8363 52W 3.4750–3.8624

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
3.8663	3.8592	3.8481	3.8298	3.8226	3.8116

End-of-day snapshot for USD/PLN: closing at 3.8540 (+0.44% on the day), just 0.22% below its 52-week high of 3.8624. Today's full-session range of 3.8363–3.8585 (0.0222 points). The daily close above the pivot (3.8409) signals bullish continuation into tomorrow's Asian open.

For tomorrow's Asian open, the key pivot reference levels remain: R1 3.8481 / R2 3.8592 / R3 3.8663 on the upside and S1 3.8298 / S2 3.8226 / S3 3.8116 on the downside. Asian session liquidity is typically thinner, so gaps through pivot levels should be monitored carefully.

USD/PLN finishes the day the trend is intact; bulls will target a break above the annual high on the next catalyst. The 52-week range of 3.4750–3.8624 places the pair at the 98th percentile. Key overnight risk: Asian economic data and any after-hours US developments that could reprice the USD complex before London re-opens.

USD/PLNBullishAbove R1Near 52W High

Informational purposes only — not investment advice. Pivot levels computed from yesterday's session OHLC via standard floor-pivot formula. Prices sourced from MetaTrader 5 as of Tuesday 29 September 2026 evening (20:30 CET). Past performance is not indicative of future results.