Economics
Macroeconomic analysis, indicators, central banks, and market conditions
118 articles
Real-time US economic conditions: HY spreads, 10Y yield, inflation expectations, mortgage rates, Fed balance sheet, and bank credit.
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10Y Breakeven Steady at 2.35%, Inflation Target Holds
The breakeven inflation rate equals the yield gap between a conventional Treasury and a TIPS of the same maturity. If the 10Y nominal yields 4.50% and the 10Y TIPS yields 2.00%, the 10Y breakeven is 2.50% — the level of average CPI at which an investor is indifferent between the
10Y Yield Holds Near 5.09% as Curve Steepens Slightly Amid Fed Watch
The 10Y Treasury yield edged down 1 bp to 5.09% Tuesday, extending its weekly drop by 13 bps, while the 2Y-10Y spread widened to +38 bps, maintaining a positive curve signal.
10Y Inflation Holds Steady at Fed Target 2.35%
The breakeven inflation rate equals the yield gap between a conventional Treasury and a TIPS of the same maturity. If the 10Y nominal yields 4.50% and the 10Y TIPS yields 2.00%, the 10Y breakeven is 2.50% — the level of average CPI at which an investor is indifferent between the
Bank credit expands $20.1B as C&I loans surge 10% YoY, outpacing sluggish real estate growth
Total bank credit rose to $19.88T (+$20.1B WoW) with a 101.0% credit/deposit ratio, signaling continued lending appetite despite Fed Funds at 3.75%, as businesses drive expansion while real estate lags.
10Y Treasury Yields Fall 8 Bps to 5.19% as Curve Steepens
The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 5.19%, down 8 bps for the week, while the 2Y-10Y spread widened to 33 bps, signaling a modestly steeper curve.
Fed balance sheet shrinks 24.7% to $6.75T as reserves hit critical $333.7B
The Fed's balance sheet stands at $6.75T, down $2.22T (24.7%) from its 2022 peak, with reserves plunging to $333.7B — below critical levels — signaling mounting liquidity stress in financial markets.
HY spreads hold at 311 bps as credit markets pause amid mixed risk signals
High-yield spreads remain at 311 bps in a NORMAL regime, with a neutral week-on-week trend (-1 bp) suggesting cautious stability as investors weigh economic data against corporate earnings.
10Y Inflation Outlook Holds Steady at 2.33%
The breakeven inflation rate equals the yield gap between a conventional Treasury and a TIPS of the same maturity. If the 10Y nominal yields 4.50% and the 10Y TIPS yields 2.00%, the 10Y breakeven is 2.50% — the level of average CPI at which an investor is indifferent between the
10Y Yield Drops 6 bps to 5.22% as Curve Holds Positive Slope
The 10-year Treasury yield fell 6 bps to 5.22% on Tuesday, extending its weekly decline while maintaining a positive spread over 2-year notes, signaling persistent growth expectations amid easing rate pressures.
HY spreads widen to 315 bps as credit markets digest mixed risk appetite
High-yield spreads rose 6 bps to 315 bps today, remaining in a NORMAL regime but extending a widening trend, signaling cautious investor sentiment amid elevated Treasury yields and corporate refinancing concerns.
10Y Inflation Expectations Steady at 2.33%, Still On Target
The breakeven inflation rate equals the yield gap between a conventional Treasury and a TIPS of the same maturity. If the 10Y nominal yields 4.50% and the 10Y TIPS yields 2.00%, the 10Y breakeven is 2.50% — the level of average CPI at which an investor is indifferent between the
HY spreads widen to 309 bps amid mixed risk sentiment, holding near 10-year median
US high-yield spreads rose 6 bps to 309 bps (54th percentile) in a NORMAL regime, signaling cautious risk appetite as the 20-day MA (288 bps) diverges from the 60-day MA (277 bps), testing recent stability.
Inflation Expectations Hold Steady at Target Level
The breakeven inflation rate equals the yield gap between a conventional Treasury and a TIPS of the same maturity. If the 10Y nominal yields 4.50% and the 10Y TIPS yields 2.00%, the 10Y breakeven is 2.50% — the level of average CPI at which an investor is indifferent between the
Fed balance sheet shrinks to $6.74T, reserves at critical $361.9B as QT continues
The Fed's balance sheet stands at $6.74T, down $2.22T (24.8%) from its April 2022 peak, with reserves at $361.9B — a critically low level that risks tightening financial conditions further.
30-year mortgage rate hits 7.28%, a 52-week high, squeezing homebuyers
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 7.28% this week, up 25 basis points, pushing the monthly payment on a $400,000 loan to $2,737 — $241 more than a year ago.
US jobless claims dip slightly to 197,000 as labor market holds steady
Initial jobless claims edged down by 2,000 to 197,000 in the week ending October 3, marking a 1.0% decline from the previous week and signaling continued stability in the labor market.
HY spreads widen to 312 bps as risk sentiment cools amid normal credit regime
US high-yield spreads rose 2 bps to 312 bps today, extending the week's 10 bps widening in a NORMAL regime, signaling cautious risk appetite as investors weigh economic resilience against elevated Treasury yields.
Inflation Expectations Hold Steady at 2.36%, On Target
The breakeven inflation rate equals the yield gap between a conventional Treasury and a TIPS of the same maturity. If the 10Y nominal yields 4.50% and the 10Y TIPS yields 2.00%, the 10Y breakeven is 2.50% — the level of average CPI at which an investor is indifferent between the