Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) Q3 2026: Calm Open (+0.6%) — Post-Earnings Analysis
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Quarterly Earnings — Revenue vs. Estimate
| Quarter Label | Quarter End | Rev Actual ($M) | Rev Est ($M) | Rev Var ($M) | EPS Actual | EPS Est | EPS Beat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2026-10 | 46,100 | 42,710 | +3,390 | 23.90 | 21.17 | +2.73 |
| Q2 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 44,480 | 39,470 | +5,010 | 12.54 | 10.11 | +2.43 |
| Q1 2026 | 2026-03-31 | 32,380 | 31,380 | +1,000 | 4.22 | 3.16 | +1.06 |
| Q4 2025 | 2025-12-31 | 30,370 | 28,200 | +2,170 | 3.82 | 3.27 | +0.55 |
| Q3 2025 | 2025-09-30 | 32,170 | 28,800 | +3,370 | 3.66 | 3.15 | +0.51 |
Revenue vs. Estimate — 5 Quarters
EPS vs. Estimate — 5 Quarters
Analyst Ratings & Price Targets
| Date | Status | Outer | Rating | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Downgrade | Jefferies | Buy → Hold | $401 |
| 2026-08-27 | Downgrade | Erste Group | Buy → Hold | |
| 2026-08-03 | Reiterated | TD Cowen | Hold | $338 → $350 |
| 2026-05-04 | Reiterated | TD Cowen | Hold | $255 → $276 |
| 2026-04-21 | Downgrade | Wolfe Research | Peer Perform → Underperform | $203 |
| 2025-12-12 | Downgrade | Mizuho | Outperform → Neutral | $192 |
| 2025-12-11 | Downgrade | BofA Securities | Buy → Neutral | $195 |
| 2025-11-10 | Initiated | Erste Group | Buy |
Recent analyst sentiment on Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) has skewed bearish, with three downgrades since April 2026 offsetting two reiterated hold ratings. Jefferies and Erste Group both reduced their recommendations from Buy to Hold in August and September, while Wolfe Research issued an Underperform rating in April, cutting its stance from Peer Perform. TD Cowen maintained its Hold rating but raised its price target twice this year—from $255 to $276 in May and to $350 in August. The latest consensus price target of approximately $300 suggests modest upside potential from Valero’s current trading level. However, the divergent views—spanning Wolfe’s $203 bear case to TD Cowen’s $350—reflect uncertainty around refining margins and energy demand. Mizuho’s December 2025 downgrade to Neutral at $192 highlights lingering caution among some analysts despite recent target increases.
Technical Analysis — 90-Day Price Chart
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) trades at $417.77, below its 20-day SMA ($423.46) but above the 50-day SMA ($390.71), suggesting near-term consolidation within a broader uptrend. The 200-day SMA (not provided) would confirm the longer-term trend; a sustained hold above this level would reinforce bullish bias. The RSI(14) at 54.6 remains neutral, lacking directional momentum. Volume at 1.36M shares trails the 20-day average of 2.47M, indicating muted participation in recent price action. Positioned between its 52-week range ($231.82-$461.52), the stock faces resistance near the upper bound while the 50-day SMA and prior swing lows offer support. A decisive break above the 20-day SMA with volume confirmation could signal renewed upside, whereas failure to hold $390.71 may test lower support zones. The technical setup reflects cautious optimism pending clearer momentum signals.
