USD/TRY is trading at 49.2128 (+0.13%), pushing further into record high territory as the lira’s structural depreciation continues unabated. The pair remains firmly in an uptrend, trading above both the 20-day (48.8176) and 50-day (48.2886) SMAs, with the ascending dynamic channels confirming persistent buying pressure. The 20-day resistance trendline sits just 907.8 pips away at 49.3035 (+0.18%), while the 50-day resistance looms slightly higher at 49.3140 (+0.21%, 1012.6 pips away). Downside support appears distant, with the nearest dynamic support at 48.7699 (-0.90%, 4428.4 pips below) on the 20-day channel. Static levels show immediate resistance at R1 (49.2144, just 1.6 pips above current), while S1 (49.0699, -0.29%, 1429 pips below) offers the first meaningful downside reference.

The extreme RSI(14) reading of 94.6 signals severely overbought conditions, yet the lira’s fundamentals (unorthodox monetary policy, negative real rates) continue to override technical warnings. With the pair testing all-time highs intraday at 49.2157, the absence of material pullbacks suggests markets are pricing in further CBRT accommodation. Short-term, the ascending channel and proximity to R1 imply upside momentum could test 49.30-49.31 resistance imminently. However, any unexpected shift in Turkey’s FX intervention rhetoric could trigger profit-taking toward S1 at 49.0699. The next catalyst is Thursday’s CBRT meeting — another hold or cut would validate the current trend, while a surprise hike (however unlikely) could force the first meaningful correction in weeks. Until then, fading the lira remains the path of least resistance.