Uncertainty on USD/JPY: Technical Analysis

The pair has retraced circa 5% from its 2023 top 145 and has rebounded last Friday on its 200 day SMA. The bullish channel started this year however experienced a fakeout breakout, a bearish indication for possible developments.

To validate the bearish scenario the pair has to trade beneath the lower side of the channel, currently 400 pips away from current quotations. Under this static support USD/JPY could test its 2023 low at 127.21.

Possible also a development of an intermediate trading range 127.21-146.06, quite wide and adapt to position traders that can afford larger time frames.

An argument against the bearishness of the breakout/fakeout is that USD/JPY is still making higher highs and higher lows, thus a different interpretation validates also the reasons of bullish positions.

The pair thus is in a quite unclear development, and both bullish and bearish forces will try to receive confirmation of their way of reading Mr. Market.

Standard Deviation seems coming back while RSI indicator just left the oversold territory and the rate is trading at 138.38, down 0.33%