Polymarket Sentiment Tracker

What does the crowd believe? Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market platform, where traders stake real money on the outcomes of global events. Unlike polls or analyst forecasts, these markets carry skin-in-the-game — each probability reflects the collective judgment of thousands of participants who stand to gain or lose based on the accuracy of their views.

Data as of: 2026-08-21 07:50 UTC

How Prediction Markets Work

A prediction market is a contract that pays $1 if a specific event occurs, and $0 if it doesn't. If a contract trades at $0.72, the market implies a 72% probability of that outcome happening. The price is set by supply and demand: when more traders believe an event will occur, they buy the "Yes" contract, pushing the probability higher. This mechanism makes prediction markets one of the most reliable real-time probability aggregators available — often more accurate than expert panels or traditional surveys.

How to Read the Tables

Each row shows one active market. Yes Prob. is the current market-implied probability of the stated event occurring. No Prob. is the inverse (100% minus Yes). The Signal column classifies confidence: High confidence (≥65%) means the crowd has reached strong consensus; Uncertain (40–64%) means the outcome is genuinely open; Unlikely (<40%) means the crowd has largely ruled the event out. Volume indicates total money traded — higher volume means more reliable pricing. The small badge (e.g. +3.5pp 24h) shows how the probability shifted in the last 24 hours.

Geopolitics & Policy

Political risk is notoriously hard to quantify — prediction markets are one of the few tools that translate it into actionable probabilities. The markets below track election outcomes, trade policy shifts, and geopolitical flashpoints. High-probability outcomes (≥65%) indicate crowd consensus; markets clustered near 50% signal contested terrain where a single headline can swing sentiment significantly.

Market	Yes Prob.	No Prob.	Signal	Volume
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes: 2.7%(-0.1pp 24h)	No: 97.3%	Unlikely	$9.9M
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes: 7.7%(+0.4pp 24h)	No: 92.3%	Unlikely	$100K
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes: 3.7%(-1.4pp 24h)	No: 96.3%	Unlikely	$99K
Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?	Yes: 9.0%(+4.5pp 24h)	No: 91.0%	Unlikely	$99K
Will Alexander Vindman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida?	Yes: 0.1%	No: 99.9%	Unlikely	$99K
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes: 98.3%(+0.2pp 24h)	No: 1.7%	High confidence	$99K

Financial Markets

These markets directly price financial outcomes: index levels, asset price milestones, and key corporate events. Unlike traditional forecasts, prediction market probabilities update instantly as new information flows in. When volume is high ($1M+), the implied probability carries substantial informational weight and often leads traditional analyst consensus.

Market	Yes Prob.	No Prob.	Signal	Volume
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026?	Yes: 8.4%	No: 91.6%	Unlikely	$10K
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on August 26?	Yes: 22.0%(-16.0pp 24h)	No: 78.0%	Unlikely	$980
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Yes: 51.0%	No: 49.0%	Uncertain	$10
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Yes: 51.0%	No: 49.0%	Uncertain	$10

Macroeconomics

Macro prediction markets capture the crowd's view on economic trajectory — GDP growth, debt ceilings, technology disruption, and fiscal policy. These are slow-moving but high-impact themes: a shift of 10 percentage points in any of these markets can represent a meaningful reassessment of the economic outlook by thousands of informed traders.

Market	Yes Prob.	No Prob.	Signal	Volume
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Yes: 12.0%(-3.0pp 24h)	No: 88.0%	Unlikely	$99K
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?	Yes: 63.0%	No: 37.0%	Uncertain	$98K
Will the For safe food – through strengthening sustainable domestic production, increasing plant-based foods and ensuring clean drinking water (food initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote?	Yes: 1.4%(+0.1pp 24h)	No: 98.6%	Unlikely	$10K
Will Alexander Hägg be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Gävleborg?	Yes: 0.1%	No: 99.9%	Unlikely	$991

Market Intelligence Commentary

Polymarket data reflects real-money crowd intelligence on key macro events. Current probabilities signal mixed sentiment across monetary policy and geopolitical risk.

Probabilities are sourced directly from Polymarket's Gamma API and represent real-money market-implied odds. Markets shown have minimum $5,000 liquidity. Data reflects live Polymarket pricing at the time of publication.