FX Morning Briefing — Thu 01 Oct 2026: AUD/USD Slides 0.50% as European Session Opens
MarketsFN FX Desk
European markets open on Thursday 01 October 2026 with G10 FX showing mixed signals as the Asian session wraps up and traders position for Friday's US afternoon data. The top movers overnight are AUD/USD (-0.50%), AUD/JPY (-0.47%), USD/NOK (+0.37%). The US Dollar Index (DXY) reflects accumulated Fed rate-cut expectations, with risk-sensitive currencies responding to equity futures and commodity prices in early London trade.
The European morning calendar is light — German and Spanish CPI finals confirm the disinflationary trend — before the key risk event arrives in the US session: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September) at 16:00 UTC. A beat would support USD broadly; a miss would renew pressure on USD/JPY near its 2026 floor and push EUR/USD back toward its 52-week high. Norges Bank's hawkish hold continues to anchor NOK outperformance, while exotic pairs trade in tight ranges ahead of the weekly close.
All 19 pairs below include live MT5 pivot levels (R1 R2 R3 / S1 S2 S3) computed from Thursday's full-session OHLC, 65-day candlestick charts with SMA20, SMA50 and Bollinger Bands (20,2), and forward-looking analysis for the EU and US sessions on Thu 01 Oct 2026.
Today's Economic Calendar
| Time (UTC) | Event | CCY | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | ● RBA Financial Stability Review | AUD | — | — | — |
| 01:30 | ● Trade Balance (Aug) | AUD | 1.351B | 2.000B | 0.495B |
| 06:00 | ● Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Sep) | GBP | 0.2% | 0.0% | -0.2% |
| 06:00 | ● Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Sep) | GBP | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% |
| 06:30 | ● CPI (MoM) (Sep) | CHF | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 07:15 | ● HCOB Spain Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | EUR | 49.5 | 50.2 | — |
| 07:30 | ● procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | CHF | 57.1 | 56.3 | — |
| 07:45 | ● HCOB Italy Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | EUR | 49.6 | 50.1 | — |
| 07:50 | ● HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | EUR | 51.1 | 50.3 | — |
| 07:55 | ● HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | EUR | 54.3 | 53.8 | — |
| 08:00 | ● BoE Gov Bailey Speaks | GBP | — | — | — |
| 08:00 | ● HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | EUR | 52.7 | 52.7 | — |
| 08:30 | ● S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | GBP | 51.7 | 52.0 | — |
| 09:00 | ● Unemployment Rate (Aug) | EUR | 6.4% | 6.4% | — |
| 10:35 | ● German Buba President Nagel Speaks | EUR | — | — | — |
| 12:00 | ● BoE MPC Member Mann Speaks | GBP | — | — | — |
| 12:30 | ● BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks | GBP | — | — | — |
| 12:30 | ● Continuing Jobless Claims | USD | 1,719K | 1,730K | — |
| 12:30 | ● Initial Jobless Claims | USD | 197K | 201K | — |
| 13:30 | ● ECB President Lagarde Speaks | EUR | — | — | — |
| 13:45 | ● S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | USD | 53.9 | 57.0 | — |
| 14:00 | ● Construction Spending (MoM) (Aug) | USD | -0.5% | 0.0% | — |
| 14:00 | ● Fed Waller Speaks | USD | — | — | — |
| 14:00 | ● ISM Manufacturing Employment (Sep) | USD | 51.2 | — | — |
| 14:00 | ● ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | USD | 54.6 | 54.8 | — |
| 14:00 | ● ISM Manufacturing Prices (Sep) | USD | 71.1 | 72.9 | — |
| 15:30 | ● Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) | USD | 3.7% | 3.7% | — |
| 15:30 | ● ECB's Schnabel Speaks | EUR | — | — | — |
| 19:00 | ● FOMC Member Bowman Speaks | USD | — | — | — |
| 19:05 | ● BoC Senior Deputy Governor Rogers Speaks | CAD | — | — | — |
| 19:30 | ● FOMC Member Williams Speaks | USD | — | — | — |
| 20:30 | ● Fed's Balance Sheet | USD | 6,748B | — | — |
| 23:30 | ● Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Sep) | JPY | 1.8% | 2.4% | — |
Major Pairs
EUR/USD
1.1328 ▼0.01% Session H 1.1328 / L 1.1328 52W 1.1311–1.2082
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.1423 | 1.1401 | 1.1365 | 1.1307 | 1.1286 | 1.1249 |
EUR/USD opens the European session at 1.1328 (-0.01% vs. Thursday's close), just 0.15% above its 52-week floor at 1.1311. The intraday bias remains neutral-to-bearish while price holds below the daily pivot at 1.1343. The 52-week range of 1.1311–1.2082 places EUR/USD at the 2th percentile — the annual support is the key line in the sand — hold or break determines the next directional leg.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 1.1365 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (1.1401) and R3 (1.1423). On the downside, S1 at 1.1307 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (1.1286) then S3 (1.1249). The R1–S1 corridor (1.1365–1.1307) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For EUR/USD, a weekly close below S1 would reinforce the corrective bias into next week.
EUR/USDRangeboundNear 52W Low
GBP/USD
1.3261 ▲0.24% Session H 1.3310 / L 1.3222 52W 1.3009–1.3868
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.3313 | 1.3285 | 1.3257 | 1.3202 | 1.3174 | 1.3146 |
GBP/USD opens the European session at 1.3261 (+0.24% vs. Thursday's close), at the 29th percentile of its 1.3009–1.3868 52-week range. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 1.3229. The 52-week range of 1.3009–1.3868 places GBP/USD at the 29th percentile — price remains in the lower half of its annual range, reflecting structural headwinds.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 1.3257 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (1.3285) and R3 (1.3313). On the downside, S1 at 1.3202 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (1.3174) then S3 (1.3146). The R1–S1 corridor (1.3257–1.3202) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For GBP/USD, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.
GBP/USDRangeboundAbove R1
USD/JPY
157.34 ▲0.05% Session H 157.46 / L 156.37 52W 149.37–163.98
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 158.39 | 158.05 | 157.66 | 156.93 | 156.59 | 156.19 |
USD/JPY opens the European session at 157.34 (+0.05% vs. Thursday's close), at the 55th percentile of its 149.37–163.98 52-week range. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 157.32. The 52-week range of 149.37–163.98 places USD/JPY at the 55th percentile — momentum is broadly constructive within the annual range.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 157.66 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (158.05) and R3 (158.39). On the downside, S1 at 156.93 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (156.59) then S3 (156.19). The R1–S1 corridor (157.66–156.93) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/JPY, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.
USD/JPYRangebound
USD/CHF
0.8354 ▲0.21% Session H 0.8355 / L 0.8320 52W 0.7602–0.8358
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.8403 | 0.8381 | 0.8358 | 0.8314 | 0.8291 | 0.8269 |
USD/CHF opens the European session at 0.8354 (+0.21% vs. Thursday's close), just 0.05% below its 52-week high of 0.8358. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 0.8336. The 52-week range of 0.7602–0.8358 places USD/CHF at the 99th percentile — upside momentum is intact; a break above the 52W high would signal trend extension.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 0.8358 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (0.8381) and R3 (0.8403). On the downside, S1 at 0.8314 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (0.8291) then S3 (0.8269). The R1–S1 corridor (0.8358–0.8314) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/CHF, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.
USD/CHFRangeboundNear 52W High
AUD/USD
0.6949 ▼0.50% Session H 0.6995 / L 0.6947 52W 0.6421–0.7277
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.7083 | 0.7056 | 0.7020 | 0.6957 | 0.6930 | 0.6894 |
AUD/USD opens the European session at 0.6949 (-0.50% vs. Thursday's close), at the 62th percentile of its 0.6421–0.7277 52-week range. The intraday bias remains neutral-to-bearish while price holds below the daily pivot at 0.6993. The 52-week range of 0.6421–0.7277 places AUD/USD at the 62th percentile — momentum is broadly constructive within the annual range.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 0.7020 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (0.7056) and R3 (0.7083). On the downside, S1 at 0.6957 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (0.6930) then S3 (0.6894). The R1–S1 corridor (0.7020–0.6957) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For AUD/USD, a weekly close below S1 would reinforce the corrective bias into next week.
AUD/USDBearishBelow S1
NZD/USD
0.5634 ▼0.09% Session H 0.5663 / L 0.5630 52W 0.5576–0.6092
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5720 | 0.5698 | 0.5668 | 0.5617 | 0.5596 | 0.5566 |
NZD/USD opens the European session at 0.5634 (-0.09% vs. Thursday's close), just 1.04% above its 52-week floor at 0.5576. The intraday bias remains neutral-to-bearish while price holds below the daily pivot at 0.5647. The 52-week range of 0.5576–0.6092 places NZD/USD at the 11th percentile — the annual support is the key line in the sand — hold or break determines the next directional leg.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 0.5668 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (0.5698) and R3 (0.5720). On the downside, S1 at 0.5617 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (0.5596) then S3 (0.5566). The R1–S1 corridor (0.5668–0.5617) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For NZD/USD, a weekly close below S1 would reinforce the corrective bias into next week.
NZD/USDRangeboundNear 52W Low
USD/CAD
1.4228 ▲0.29% Session H 1.4229 / L 1.4154 52W 1.3480–1.4247
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4236 | 1.4219 | 1.4203 | 1.4170 | 1.4152 | 1.4136 |
USD/CAD opens the European session at 1.4228 (+0.29% vs. Thursday's close), just 0.13% below its 52-week high of 1.4247. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 1.4185. The 52-week range of 1.3480–1.4247 places USD/CAD at the 98th percentile — upside momentum is intact; a break above the 52W high would signal trend extension.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 1.4203 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (1.4219) and R3 (1.4236). On the downside, S1 at 1.4170 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (1.4152) then S3 (1.4136). The R1–S1 corridor (1.4203–1.4170) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/CAD, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.
USD/CADRangeboundAbove R1Near 52W High
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EUR/GBP
0.8534 ▼0.06% Session H 0.8545 / L 0.8532 52W 0.8454–0.8865
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.8600 | 0.8587 | 0.8563 | 0.8526 | 0.8514 | 0.8489 |
EUR/GBP opens the European session at 0.8534 (-0.06% vs. Thursday's close), just 0.94% above its 52-week floor at 0.8454. The intraday bias remains neutral-to-bearish while price holds below the daily pivot at 0.8550. The 52-week range of 0.8454–0.8865 places EUR/GBP at the 19th percentile — the annual support is the key line in the sand — hold or break determines the next directional leg.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 0.8563 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (0.8587) and R3 (0.8600). On the downside, S1 at 0.8526 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (0.8514) then S3 (0.8489). The R1–S1 corridor (0.8563–0.8526) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For EUR/GBP, a weekly close below S1 would reinforce the corrective bias into next week.
EUR/GBPRangeboundNear 52W Low
EUR/JPY
178.28 ▼0.05% Session H 178.56 / L 177.33 52W 174.81–187.94
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 179.97 | 179.55 | 178.96 | 177.94 | 177.52 | 176.93 |
EUR/JPY opens the European session at 178.28 (-0.05% vs. Thursday's close), at the 26th percentile of its 174.81–187.94 52-week range. The intraday bias remains neutral-to-bearish while price holds below the daily pivot at 178.53. The 52-week range of 174.81–187.94 places EUR/JPY at the 26th percentile — price remains in the lower half of its annual range, reflecting structural headwinds.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 178.96 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (179.55) and R3 (179.97). On the downside, S1 at 177.94 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (177.52) then S3 (176.93). The R1–S1 corridor (178.96–177.94) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For EUR/JPY, a weekly close below S1 would reinforce the corrective bias into next week.
EUR/JPYRangebound
GBP/JPY
208.66 ▲0.27% Session H 208.81 / L 206.87 52W 199.06–219.60
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 209.49 | 209.12 | 208.61 | 207.73 | 207.36 | 206.85 |
GBP/JPY opens the European session at 208.66 (+0.27% vs. Thursday's close), at the 47th percentile of its 199.06–219.60 52-week range. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 208.24. The 52-week range of 199.06–219.60 places GBP/JPY at the 47th percentile — price remains in the lower half of its annual range, reflecting structural headwinds.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 208.61 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (209.12) and R3 (209.49). On the downside, S1 at 207.73 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (207.36) then S3 (206.85). The R1–S1 corridor (208.61–207.73) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For GBP/JPY, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.
GBP/JPYRangeboundAbove R1
AUD/JPY
109.33 ▼0.47% Session H 110.03 / L 108.89 52W 96.25–114.95
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 111.49 | 111.09 | 110.47 | 109.45 | 109.05 | 108.43 |
AUD/JPY opens the European session at 109.33 (-0.47% vs. Thursday's close), at the 70th percentile of its 96.25–114.95 52-week range. The intraday bias remains neutral-to-bearish while price holds below the daily pivot at 110.07. The 52-week range of 96.25–114.95 places AUD/JPY at the 70th percentile — momentum is broadly constructive within the annual range.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 110.47 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (111.09) and R3 (111.49). On the downside, S1 at 109.45 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (109.05) then S3 (108.43). The R1–S1 corridor (110.47–109.45) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For AUD/JPY, a weekly close below S1 would reinforce the corrective bias into next week.
AUD/JPYBearishBelow S1
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USD/NOK
9.621 ▲0.37% Session H 9.624 / L 9.554 52W 9.144–10.297
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.739 | 9.680 | 9.633 | 9.526 | 9.467 | 9.420 |
USD/NOK opens the European session at 9.621 (+0.37% vs. Thursday's close), at the 41th percentile of its 9.144–10.297 52-week range. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 9.574. The 52-week range of 9.144–10.297 places USD/NOK at the 41th percentile — price remains in the lower half of its annual range, reflecting structural headwinds.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 9.633 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (9.680) and R3 (9.739). On the downside, S1 at 9.526 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (9.467) then S3 (9.420). The R1–S1 corridor (9.633–9.526) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/NOK, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.
USD/NOKBullish
USD/SEK
10.009 ▲0.26% Session H 10.011 / L 9.952 52W 8.737–10.034
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.141 | 10.088 | 10.035 | 9.929 | 9.875 | 9.823 |
USD/SEK opens the European session at 10.009 (+0.26% vs. Thursday's close), just 0.24% below its 52-week high of 10.034. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 9.981. The 52-week range of 8.737–10.034 places USD/SEK at the 98th percentile — upside momentum is intact; a break above the 52W high would signal trend extension.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 10.035 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (10.088) and R3 (10.141). On the downside, S1 at 9.929 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (9.875) then S3 (9.823). The R1–S1 corridor (10.035–9.929) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/SEK, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.
USD/SEKRangeboundNear 52W High
EUR/NOK
10.902 ▲0.22% Session H 10.909 / L 10.833 52W 10.673–12.012
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.993 | 10.942 | 10.910 | 10.827 | 10.777 | 10.744 |
EUR/NOK opens the European session at 10.902 (+0.22% vs. Thursday's close), at the 17th percentile of its 10.673–12.012 52-week range. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 10.860. The 52-week range of 10.673–12.012 places EUR/NOK at the 17th percentile — price remains in the lower half of its annual range, reflecting structural headwinds.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 10.910 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (10.942) and R3 (10.993). On the downside, S1 at 10.827 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (10.777) then S3 (10.744). The R1–S1 corridor (10.910–10.827) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For EUR/NOK, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.
EUR/NOKRangebound
NOK/SEK
1.0398 ▲0.02% Session H 1.0423 / L 1.0350 52W 0.9064–1.0491
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0535 | 1.0494 | 1.0445 | 1.0356 | 1.0315 | 1.0266 |
NOK/SEK opens the European session at 1.0398 (+0.02% vs. Thursday's close), just 0.89% below its 52-week high of 1.0491. The intraday bias remains neutral-to-bearish while price holds below the daily pivot at 1.0405. The 52-week range of 0.9064–1.0491 places NOK/SEK at the 93th percentile — upside momentum is intact; a break above the 52W high would signal trend extension.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 1.0445 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (1.0494) and R3 (1.0535). On the downside, S1 at 1.0356 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (1.0315) then S3 (1.0266). The R1–S1 corridor (1.0445–1.0356) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For NOK/SEK, a weekly close below S1 would reinforce the corrective bias into next week.
NOK/SEKRangeboundNear 52W High
Exotic Pairs
USD/TRY
49.015 ▲0.22% Session H 49.019 / L 48.907 52W 41.593–49.019
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49.155 | 49.081 | 48.994 | 48.832 | 48.758 | 48.671 |
USD/TRY opens the European session at 49.015 (+0.22% vs. Thursday's close), just 0.01% below its 52-week high of 49.019. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 48.919. The 52-week range of 41.593–49.019 places USD/TRY at the 100th percentile — upside momentum is intact; a break above the 52W high would signal trend extension.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 48.994 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (49.081) and R3 (49.155). On the downside, S1 at 48.832 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (48.758) then S3 (48.671). The R1–S1 corridor (48.994–48.832) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/TRY, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.
USD/TRYRangeboundAbove R1Near 52W High
USD/MXN
18.057 ▲0.09% Session H 18.151 / L 17.937 52W 16.855–18.768
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.447 | 18.297 | 18.170 | 17.892 | 17.743 | 17.615 |
USD/MXN opens the European session at 18.057 (+0.09% vs. Thursday's close), at the 63th percentile of its 16.855–18.768 52-week range. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 18.020. The 52-week range of 16.855–18.768 places USD/MXN at the 63th percentile — momentum is broadly constructive within the annual range.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 18.170 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (18.297) and R3 (18.447). On the downside, S1 at 17.892 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (17.743) then S3 (17.615). The R1–S1 corridor (18.170–17.892) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/MXN, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.
USD/MXNRangebound
USD/ZAR
16.42 ▲0.24% Session H 16.44 / L 16.31 52W 15.64–17.57
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16.56 | 16.52 | 16.45 | 16.34 | 16.29 | 16.22 |
USD/ZAR opens the European session at 16.42 (+0.24% vs. Thursday's close), at the 41th percentile of its 15.64–17.57 52-week range. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 16.40. The 52-week range of 15.64–17.57 places USD/ZAR at the 41th percentile — price remains in the lower half of its annual range, reflecting structural headwinds.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 16.45 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (16.52) and R3 (16.56). On the downside, S1 at 16.34 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (16.29) then S3 (16.22). The R1–S1 corridor (16.45–16.34) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/ZAR, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.
USD/ZARRangebound
USD/PLN
3.8510 ▲0.02% Session H 3.8554 / L 3.8334 52W 3.4750–3.8650
| R3 | R2 | R1 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.8934 | 3.8792 | 3.8647 | 3.8360 | 3.8218 | 3.8073 |
USD/PLN opens the European session at 3.8510 (+0.02% vs. Thursday's close), just 0.36% below its 52-week high of 3.8650. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 3.8505. The 52-week range of 3.4750–3.8650 places USD/PLN at the 96th percentile — upside momentum is intact; a break above the 52W high would signal trend extension.
Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 3.8647 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (3.8792) and R3 (3.8934). On the downside, S1 at 3.8360 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (3.8218) then S3 (3.8073). The R1–S1 corridor (3.8647–3.8360) marks the most probable intraday trading band.
For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/PLN, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.
USD/PLNRangeboundNear 52W High
Informational purposes only — not investment advice. Pivot levels computed from Thursday's session OHLC via standard floor-pivot formula. Data sourced from MetaTrader 5 as of Thursday 01 October 2026 EU open. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
