FX Morning Briefing — Fri 25 Sep 2026: USD/MXN Rallies 0.99% as European Session Opens

European markets open on Friday 25 September 2026 with G10 FX showing mixed signals as the Asian session wraps up and traders position for Friday's US afternoon data. The top movers overnight are USD/MXN (+0.99%), USD/JPY (-0.52%), USD/NOK (+0.45%). The US Dollar Index (DXY) reflects accumulated Fed rate-cut expectations, with risk-sensitive currencies responding to equity futures and commodity prices in early London trade.

The European morning calendar is light — German and Spanish CPI finals confirm the disinflationary trend — before the key risk event arrives in the US session: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September) at 16:00 UTC. A beat would support USD broadly; a miss would renew pressure on USD/JPY near its 2026 floor and push EUR/USD back toward its 52-week high. Norges Bank's hawkish hold continues to anchor NOK outperformance, while exotic pairs trade in tight ranges ahead of the weekly close.

All 19 pairs below include live MT5 pivot levels (R1 R2 R3 / S1 S2 S3) computed from Thursday's full-session OHLC, 65-day candlestick charts with SMA20, SMA50 and Bollinger Bands (20,2), and forward-looking analysis for the EU and US sessions on Fri 25 Sep 2026.

Today's Economic Calendar

Time (UTC)	Event	CCY	Previous	Forecast	Actual
06:00	● GfK German Consumer Climate (Oct)	EUR	-26.8	-27.1	-30.6
07:00	● Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q2)	EUR	0.6%	0.7%	0.7%
09:15	● BoE Gov Bailey Speaks	GBP	—	—	—
09:15	● FOMC Member Williams Speaks	USD	—	—	—
12:30	● Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Aug)	USD	0.4%	0.6%	—
12:30	● Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Aug)	USD	1.1%	-0.3%	—
12:30	● Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Aug)	CAD	0.3%	—	—
14:00	● Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3)	USD	5.1%	5.1%	—
14:00	● Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Sep)	USD	4.0%	4.6%	—
14:00	● Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Sep)	USD	3.3%	3.4%	—
14:00	● Michigan Consumer Expectations (Sep)	USD	51.5	45.8	—
14:00	● Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep)	USD	51.7	47.8	—
17:00	● U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	USD	452	453	—
17:00	● U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	USD	595	—	—
19:30	● CFTC GBP speculative net positions	GBP	-58.7K	—	—
19:30	● CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions	USD	135.9K	—	—
19:30	● CFTC Gold speculative net positions	USD	230.3K	—	—
19:30	● CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions	USD	33.7K	—	—
19:30	● CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions	USD	-100.5K	—	—
19:30	● CFTC AUD speculative net positions	AUD	-38.9K	—	—
19:30	● CFTC BRL speculative net positions	BRL	58.0K	—	—
19:30	● CFTC JPY speculative net positions	JPY	120.4K	—	—
19:30	● CFTC EUR speculative net positions	EUR	-27.0K	—	—

Major Pairs

EUR/USD

1.1382 ▲0.02% Session H 1.1389 / L 1.1368 52W 1.1324–1.2082

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
1.1439	1.1419	1.1399	1.1359	1.1339	1.1319

EUR/USD opens the European session at 1.1382 (+0.02% vs. Thursday's close), just 0.51% above its 52-week floor at 1.1324. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 1.1379. The 52-week range of 1.1324–1.2082 places EUR/USD at the 8th percentile — the annual support is the key line in the sand — hold or break determines the next directional leg.

Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 1.1399 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (1.1419) and R3 (1.1439). On the downside, S1 at 1.1359 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (1.1339) then S3 (1.1319). The R1–S1 corridor (1.1399–1.1359) marks the most probable intraday trading band.

For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For EUR/USD, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.

EUR/USDRangeboundNear 52W Low

GBP/USD

1.3222 ▲0.05% Session H 1.3228 / L 1.3208 52W 1.3009–1.3868

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
1.3299	1.3277	1.3247	1.3195	1.3173	1.3143

GBP/USD opens the European session at 1.3222 (+0.05% vs. Thursday's close), at the 25th percentile of its 1.3009–1.3868 52-week range. The intraday bias remains neutral-to-bearish while price holds below the daily pivot at 1.3225. The 52-week range of 1.3009–1.3868 places GBP/USD at the 25th percentile — price remains in the lower half of its annual range, reflecting structural headwinds.

Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 1.3247 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (1.3277) and R3 (1.3299). On the downside, S1 at 1.3195 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (1.3173) then S3 (1.3143). The R1–S1 corridor (1.3247–1.3195) marks the most probable intraday trading band.

For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For GBP/USD, a weekly close below S1 would reinforce the corrective bias into next week.

GBP/USDRangebound

USD/JPY

158.02 ▼0.52% Session H 158.91 / L 157.94 52W 149.37–163.98

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
160.56	159.79	159.32	158.08	157.31	156.84

USD/JPY opens the European session at 158.02 (-0.52% vs. Thursday's close), at the 59th percentile of its 149.37–163.98 52-week range. The intraday bias remains neutral-to-bearish while price holds below the daily pivot at 158.55. The 52-week range of 149.37–163.98 places USD/JPY at the 59th percentile — momentum is broadly constructive within the annual range.

Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 159.32 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (159.79) and R3 (160.56). On the downside, S1 at 158.08 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (157.31) then S3 (156.84). The R1–S1 corridor (159.32–158.08) marks the most probable intraday trading band.

For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/JPY, a weekly close below S1 would reinforce the corrective bias into next week.

USD/JPYBearishBelow S1

USD/CHF

0.8290 ▲0.18% Session H 0.8295 / L 0.8269 52W 0.7602–0.8296

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
0.8373	0.8334	0.8305	0.8237	0.8198	0.8169

USD/CHF opens the European session at 0.8290 (+0.18% vs. Thursday's close), just 0.06% below its 52-week high of 0.8296. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 0.8266. The 52-week range of 0.7602–0.8296 places USD/CHF at the 99th percentile — upside momentum is intact; a break above the 52W high would signal trend extension.

Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 0.8305 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (0.8334) and R3 (0.8373). On the downside, S1 at 0.8237 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (0.8198) then S3 (0.8169). The R1–S1 corridor (0.8305–0.8237) marks the most probable intraday trading band.

For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/CHF, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.

USD/CHFRangeboundNear 52W High

AUD/USD

0.7023 ▼0.18% Session H 0.7027 / L 0.7003 52W 0.6421–0.7277

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
0.7070	0.7055	0.7045	0.7021	0.7007	0.6996

AUD/USD opens the European session at 0.7023 (-0.18% vs. Thursday's close), at the 70th percentile of its 0.6421–0.7277 52-week range. The intraday bias remains neutral-to-bearish while price holds below the daily pivot at 0.7031. The 52-week range of 0.6421–0.7277 places AUD/USD at the 70th percentile — momentum is broadly constructive within the annual range.

Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 0.7045 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (0.7055) and R3 (0.7070). On the downside, S1 at 0.7021 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (0.7007) then S3 (0.6996). The R1–S1 corridor (0.7045–0.7021) marks the most probable intraday trading band.

For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For AUD/USD, a weekly close below S1 would reinforce the corrective bias into next week.

AUD/USDRangebound

NZD/USD

0.5666 ▼0.19% Session H 0.5668 / L 0.5649 52W 0.5576–0.6091

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
0.5707	0.5696	0.5686	0.5666	0.5655	0.5646

NZD/USD opens the European session at 0.5666 (-0.19% vs. Thursday's close), at the 18th percentile of its 0.5576–0.6091 52-week range. The intraday bias remains neutral-to-bearish while price holds below the daily pivot at 0.5676. The 52-week range of 0.5576–0.6091 places NZD/USD at the 18th percentile — price remains in the lower half of its annual range, reflecting structural headwinds.

Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 0.5686 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (0.5696) and R3 (0.5707). On the downside, S1 at 0.5666 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (0.5655) then S3 (0.5646). The R1–S1 corridor (0.5686–0.5666) marks the most probable intraday trading band.

For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For NZD/USD, a weekly close below S1 would reinforce the corrective bias into next week.

NZD/USDRangeboundBelow S1

USD/CAD

1.4150 ▲0.31% Session H 1.4153 / L 1.4130 52W 1.3481–1.4247

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
1.4144	1.4128	1.4117	1.4090	1.4074	1.4063

USD/CAD opens the European session at 1.4150 (+0.31% vs. Thursday's close), just 0.69% below its 52-week high of 1.4247. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 1.4101. The 52-week range of 1.3481–1.4247 places USD/CAD at the 87th percentile — upside momentum is intact; a break above the 52W high would signal trend extension.

Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 1.4117 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (1.4128) and R3 (1.4144). On the downside, S1 at 1.4090 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (1.4074) then S3 (1.4063). The R1–S1 corridor (1.4117–1.4090) marks the most probable intraday trading band.

For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/CAD, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.

USD/CADBullishAbove R1Near 52W High

Cross Pairs

EUR/GBP

0.8608 ▲0.10% Session H 0.8610 / L 0.8598 52W 0.8454–0.8864

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
0.8612	0.8606	0.8602	0.8592	0.8586	0.8582

EUR/GBP opens the European session at 0.8608 (+0.10% vs. Thursday's close), at the 37th percentile of its 0.8454–0.8864 52-week range. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 0.8596. The 52-week range of 0.8454–0.8864 places EUR/GBP at the 37th percentile — price remains in the lower half of its annual range, reflecting structural headwinds.

Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 0.8602 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (0.8606) and R3 (0.8612). On the downside, S1 at 0.8592 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (0.8586) then S3 (0.8582). The R1–S1 corridor (0.8602–0.8592) marks the most probable intraday trading band.

For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For EUR/GBP, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.

EUR/GBPRangeboundAbove R1

EUR/JPY

179.87 ▼0.30% Session H 180.76 / L 179.76 52W 174.80–187.94

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
181.70	181.07	180.75	179.79	179.17	178.84

EUR/JPY opens the European session at 179.87 (-0.30% vs. Thursday's close), at the 39th percentile of its 174.80–187.94 52-week range. The intraday bias remains neutral-to-bearish while price holds below the daily pivot at 180.12. The 52-week range of 174.80–187.94 places EUR/JPY at the 39th percentile — price remains in the lower half of its annual range, reflecting structural headwinds.

Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 180.75 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (181.07) and R3 (181.70). On the downside, S1 at 179.79 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (179.17) then S3 (178.84). The R1–S1 corridor (180.75–179.79) marks the most probable intraday trading band.

For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For EUR/JPY, a weekly close below S1 would reinforce the corrective bias into next week.

EUR/JPYBearish

GBP/JPY

208.94 ▼0.41% Session H 209.98 / L 208.81 52W 199.05–219.59

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
211.28	210.56	210.18	209.09	208.37	207.99

GBP/JPY opens the European session at 208.94 (-0.41% vs. Thursday's close), at the 48th percentile of its 199.05–219.59 52-week range. The intraday bias remains neutral-to-bearish while price holds below the daily pivot at 209.47. The 52-week range of 199.05–219.59 places GBP/JPY at the 48th percentile — price remains in the lower half of its annual range, reflecting structural headwinds.

Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 210.18 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (210.56) and R3 (211.28). On the downside, S1 at 209.09 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (208.37) then S3 (207.99). The R1–S1 corridor (210.18–209.09) marks the most probable intraday trading band.

For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For GBP/JPY, a weekly close below S1 would reinforce the corrective bias into next week.

GBP/JPYBearishBelow S1

AUD/JPY

110.97 ▼0.43% Session H 111.51 / L 110.92 52W 96.24–114.95

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
112.41	111.96	111.70	110.99	110.54	110.28

AUD/JPY opens the European session at 110.97 (-0.43% vs. Thursday's close), at the 79th percentile of its 96.24–114.95 52-week range. The intraday bias remains neutral-to-bearish while price holds below the daily pivot at 111.25. The 52-week range of 96.24–114.95 places AUD/JPY at the 79th percentile — momentum is broadly constructive within the annual range.

Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 111.70 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (111.96) and R3 (112.41). On the downside, S1 at 110.99 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (110.54) then S3 (110.28). The R1–S1 corridor (111.70–110.99) marks the most probable intraday trading band.

For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For AUD/JPY, a weekly close below S1 would reinforce the corrective bias into next week.

AUD/JPYBearishBelow S1

Nordic Pairs

USD/NOK

9.518 ▲0.45% Session H 9.527 / L 9.471 52W 9.144–10.297

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
9.569	9.537	9.506	9.444	9.412	9.381

USD/NOK opens the European session at 9.518 (+0.45% vs. Thursday's close), at the 32th percentile of its 9.144–10.297 52-week range. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 9.475. The 52-week range of 9.144–10.297 places USD/NOK at the 32th percentile — price remains in the lower half of its annual range, reflecting structural headwinds.

Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 9.506 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (9.537) and R3 (9.569). On the downside, S1 at 9.444 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (9.412) then S3 (9.381). The R1–S1 corridor (9.506–9.444) marks the most probable intraday trading band.

For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/NOK, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.

USD/NOKBullishAbove R1

USD/SEK

9.914 ▲0.14% Session H 9.930 / L 9.894 52W 8.736–9.945

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
9.964	9.949	9.925	9.886	9.871	9.847

USD/SEK opens the European session at 9.914 (+0.14% vs. Thursday's close), just 0.32% below its 52-week high of 9.945. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 9.910. The 52-week range of 8.736–9.945 places USD/SEK at the 97th percentile — upside momentum is intact; a break above the 52W high would signal trend extension.

Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 9.925 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (9.949) and R3 (9.964). On the downside, S1 at 9.886 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (9.871) then S3 (9.847). The R1–S1 corridor (9.925–9.886) marks the most probable intraday trading band.

For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/SEK, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.

USD/SEKRangeboundNear 52W High

EUR/NOK

10.792 ▼0.03% Session H 10.809 / L 10.748 52W 10.672–12.011

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
10.874	10.850	10.822	10.771	10.747	10.719

EUR/NOK opens the European session at 10.792 (-0.03% vs. Thursday's close), just 1.12% above its 52-week floor at 10.672. The intraday bias remains neutral-to-bearish while price holds below the daily pivot at 10.799. The 52-week range of 10.672–12.011 places EUR/NOK at the 9th percentile — the annual support is the key line in the sand — hold or break determines the next directional leg.

Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 10.822 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (10.850) and R3 (10.874). On the downside, S1 at 10.771 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (10.747) then S3 (10.719). The R1–S1 corridor (10.822–10.771) marks the most probable intraday trading band.

For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For EUR/NOK, a weekly close below S1 would reinforce the corrective bias into next week.

EUR/NOKRangeboundNear 52W Low

NOK/SEK

1.0440 ▲0.11% Session H 1.0455 / L 1.0379 52W 0.9060–1.0487

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
1.0566	1.0509	1.0469	1.0372	1.0315	1.0274

NOK/SEK opens the European session at 1.0440 (+0.11% vs. Thursday's close), just 0.46% below its 52-week high of 1.0487. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 1.0412. The 52-week range of 0.9060–1.0487 places NOK/SEK at the 97th percentile — upside momentum is intact; a break above the 52W high would signal trend extension.

Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 1.0469 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (1.0509) and R3 (1.0566). On the downside, S1 at 1.0372 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (1.0315) then S3 (1.0274). The R1–S1 corridor (1.0469–1.0372) marks the most probable intraday trading band.

For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For NOK/SEK, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.

NOK/SEKRangeboundNear 52W High

Exotic Pairs

USD/TRY

48.962 ▲0.23% Session H 48.962 / L 48.650 52W 41.356–48.962

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
49.054	48.956	48.903	48.752	48.653	48.601

USD/TRY opens the European session at 48.962 (+0.23% vs. Thursday's close), just 0.00% below its 52-week high of 48.962. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 48.805. The 52-week range of 41.356–48.962 places USD/TRY at the 100th percentile — upside momentum is intact; a break above the 52W high would signal trend extension.

Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 48.903 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (48.956) and R3 (49.054). On the downside, S1 at 48.752 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (48.653) then S3 (48.601). The R1–S1 corridor (48.903–48.752) marks the most probable intraday trading band.

For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/TRY, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.

USD/TRYRangeboundAbove R1Near 52W High

USD/MXN

17.689 ▲0.99% Session H 17.758 / L 17.673 52W 16.855–18.769

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
17.662	17.621	17.568	17.474	17.432	17.379

USD/MXN opens the European session at 17.689 (+0.99% vs. Thursday's close), at the 44th percentile of its 16.855–18.769 52-week range. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 17.526. The 52-week range of 16.855–18.769 places USD/MXN at the 44th percentile — price remains in the lower half of its annual range, reflecting structural headwinds.

Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 17.568 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (17.621) and R3 (17.662). On the downside, S1 at 17.474 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (17.432) then S3 (17.379). The R1–S1 corridor (17.568–17.474) marks the most probable intraday trading band.

For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/MXN, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.

USD/MXNBullishAbove R1

USD/ZAR

16.37 ▲0.10% Session H 16.44 / L 16.36 52W 15.64–17.57

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
16.47	16.43	16.40	16.32	16.29	16.25

USD/ZAR opens the European session at 16.37 (+0.10% vs. Thursday's close), at the 38th percentile of its 15.64–17.57 52-week range. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 16.36. The 52-week range of 15.64–17.57 places USD/ZAR at the 38th percentile — price remains in the lower half of its annual range, reflecting structural headwinds.

Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 16.40 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (16.43) and R3 (16.47). On the downside, S1 at 16.32 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (16.29) then S3 (16.25). The R1–S1 corridor (16.40–16.32) marks the most probable intraday trading band.

For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/ZAR, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.

USD/ZARRangebound

USD/PLN

3.8516 ▲0.26% Session H 3.8598 / L 3.8276 52W 3.4750–3.8598

R3	R2	R1	S1	S2	S3
3.9277	3.8910	3.8662	3.8048	3.7681	3.7433

USD/PLN opens the European session at 3.8516 (+0.26% vs. Thursday's close), just 0.21% below its 52-week high of 3.8598. The intraday bias tilts bullish while price holds above the daily pivot at 3.8295. The 52-week range of 3.4750–3.8598 places USD/PLN at the 98th percentile — upside momentum is intact; a break above the 52W high would signal trend extension.

Resistance levels to monitor on the upside: R1 at 3.8662 is the first pivot barrier; clearing it shifts momentum decisively higher toward R2 (3.8910) and R3 (3.9277). On the downside, S1 at 3.8048 is the immediate support floor — a confirmed break below S1 exposes S2 (3.7681) then S3 (3.7433). The R1–S1 corridor (3.8662–3.8048) marks the most probable intraday trading band.

For the session ahead, the key US data risk is the UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary September reading), due at 16:00 UTC. A reading above consensus would strengthen the dollar broadly; a miss would renew USD selling pressure. For USD/PLN, a weekly close above R1 would confirm the bullish structure into next week.

USD/PLNRangeboundNear 52W High

Informational purposes only — not investment advice. Pivot levels computed from Thursday's session OHLC via standard floor-pivot formula. Data sourced from MetaTrader 5 as of Friday 25 September 2026 EU open. Past performance is not indicative of future results.