American Express (AXP) Q3 2026: Record Revenue and EPS Guidance Raised — Strongly Positive: Slides 3.1% at Open — Post-Earnings Analysis

American Express (NYSE: AXP) reported a robust third quarter for 2026, delivering record revenue of $20.1 billion, which represents an increase of $1.7 billion or +9% year-over-year (YoY). The company also saw its earnings per share (EPS) rise to $5.42, marking a significant 31% increase from $4.14 in the same quarter last year. Adjusted EPS, which excludes certain gains, was $4.68, reflecting a 13% increase from the previous year.

This quarter's performance is undoubtedly a positive outcome for shareholders, showcasing strong business momentum driven by increased card member spending, higher net interest income, and robust card fee growth. The substantial rise in EPS and revenue indicates that American Express is effectively capitalizing on its market position and customer loyalty.

Key Financial Metrics:

• Total Revenue: $20.1 billion, up $1.7 billion or +9% YoY
• Net Income: $3.7 billion, up $800 million or +28% YoY
• EPS: $5.42, up 31% YoY from $4.14
• Adjusted EPS: $4.68, up 13% YoY from $4.14
• Consolidated Expenses: $14.5 billion, up 9% YoY
• Effective Tax Rate: 18.1%, down from 24.1% YoY

Dividend and Share Buyback:

While the earnings report did not specify any changes to dividends or share buyback programs, the strong performance and raised guidance suggest that the company is in a solid position to consider shareholder returns in the future.

Guidance Update:

American Express has raised its full-year EPS guidance to a range of $18.30 to $18.60, compared to the previous guidance of $17.60 to $17.90. This upward revision reflects confidence in achieving continued revenue growth, projected at around 10% for the year.

Analyst Opinion:

This quarter's results are a clear indication of American Express's strong operational performance and strategic initiatives. The increase in both revenue and EPS, coupled with the raised guidance, positions the company favorably in the competitive landscape of financial services. The ongoing innovations in their Membership Model and partnerships, such as the recent collaboration with Airbnb, further enhance their value proposition to customers.

Forward Catalysts:

Investors should keep an eye on the upcoming quarters for continued growth in card member spending and the impact of new product launches, such as the next generation of Amex Corporate™ and the American Express Business Savings account. Additionally, the company's ability to maintain credit quality and manage expenses will be crucial as economic conditions evolve.

In summary, American Express's Q3 2026 results reflect a strong quarter with significant growth in revenue and earnings, reinforcing the company's positive trajectory and commitment to delivering value to shareholders.

Note: Amounts in the following tables are in millions.

Quarterly Earnings — Revenue vs. Estimate

Revenue vs. Estimate — 5 Quarters

EPS vs. Estimate — 5 Quarters

Analyst Ratings & Price Targets

Recent analyst activity on American Express (AXP) reflects a broadly bullish sentiment, with four initiations and two upgrades since May 2026, all carrying positive recommendations. BMO Capital Markets and Piper Sandler initiated coverage at Outperform and Overweight with price targets of $380 and $396, respectively, while JP Morgan upgraded the stock from Neutral to Overweight with a $400 target. DZ Bank also raised its rating from Hold to Buy ($375), and Loop Capital started coverage with a Buy rating ($389). Wolfe Research resumed coverage at Peer Perform without specifying a target. The consensus price target of approximately $388 suggests a 12% upside from current levels, indicating moderate growth potential. The unanimous positive bias among recent analyst actions underscores confidence in AXP's fundamentals, though the magnitude of implied upside remains tempered by the stock's recent performance.

Technical Analysis — 90-Day Price Chart

American Express (AXP) trades at $313.4, above its 20-day SMA ($309.7) but below the 50-day SMA ($318.42), reflecting near-term resilience amid intermediate softness. The 200-day SMA ($312.5) aligns closely with the current price, suggesting a pivotal level for trend direction. The 14-day RSI at 61.7 indicates neutral momentum, neither overbought nor oversold, but with slight upward bias. Volume at 2.7M shares trails the 20-day average of 3.2M, signaling muted participation in recent moves. The stock hovers near the midpoint of its 52-week range ($296.28–$362.02), implying balanced support/resistance dynamics—a move toward $318.42 (50-day SMA) could confirm bullish momentum, while a break below $309.7 (20-day SMA) may test lower support near $300. The proximity to the 200-day SMA underscores its technical significance as a key inflection zone.