Credit-to-GDP Gap Monitor

Global credit expansion remains uneven, with Saudi Arabia (+6.7pp), Japan (+5.7pp), and India (+4.3pp) showing above-trend credit-to-GDP gaps, though none yet trigger Basel III’s CCyB buffer threshold (10pp). Elevated gaps in these economies suggest rising financial imbalances, particularly in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector and Japan’s corporate borrowing. Meanwhile, the US (-11.3pp) and Norway (-11.7pp) exhibit compressed credit cycles, reflecting tighter financial conditions. Systemic risk appears contained, with no economy signaling acute stress, but watch Saudi and Japan for potential overheating. China (-5.1pp) and Germany (-4.2pp) reflect subdued credit demand amid weak growth. Monitor EM outliers like Argentina (+2.7pp) for volatility. Overall, imbalances are building but not yet critical.